Market likely to face rising selling force after testing 1,500 points: experts

Market likely to face rising selling force after testing 1,500 points: experts

The capital inflow continues to drive the market toward new peaks this year, particularly as it challenges the strong resistance level of 1,500 points.

Investors follow the market's movements on a trading floor of a securities firm in Hà Nội. — VNA/VNS Photo

Experts remain optimistic about the recent rallies but warn of some corrections.

The VN-Index on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) closed last week at 1,497.28 points, while the HNX-Index on the Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX) was last traded at 247.77 points.

For the week, the former gained 2.71 per cent and the latter soared 3.75 per cent. 

In the final trading session of the week, the VN-Index touched 1,500 points for the first time in over three years, with demand continuing to dominate. 

Liquidity surged on both main exchanges, with total transaction value on the HoSE reaching nearly VNĐ170.6 trillion (US$6.5 billion), up 12.51 per cent from the previous week. On the northern bourse, total transaction value for the week hit over VNĐ14.4 trillion, a 27.77 per cent increase compared to the previous week.

Capital continued to flow positively among sectors, with notable trading activity in the securities and real estate sectors, both of which are sensitive to monetary policies and the current low-interest-rate environment. 

Stocks in the banking, retail, consumer goods and public investment sectors also exhibited positive trading trends.

Foreign investors reduced their net buying activity but still maintained a high level, with net buying value at VNĐ1.22 trillion by week’s end. The top three stocks with the highest net buying were VPBank (VPB), SSI Securities Corporation (SSI) and Masan Group (MSN). 

In contrast, the stocks that faced the strongest net selling pressure included Vietcombank (VCB), Gemadept Corporation (GMD) and DCVFMVN30 ETF (E1VFVN30).

Correction pressure

Experts from Vietnam Construction Securities JSC (CSI) noted that the upward trend remains strong, with no significant reversal signals observed, suggesting that the momentum may continue in the coming sessions. 

However, as the VN-Index approaches its historical high of 1,535 points, substantial selling pressure is likely to emerge.

"We anticipate that around the 1,515-point level, there will be considerable selling pressure, which could trigger a correction in the VN-Index after five consecutive weeks of gains," the CSI analysis team advised.

"Therefore, investors should avoid chasing prices and maintain a larger cash position, waiting for a pullback to secure safer buying opportunities."

Meanwhile, analysts from Saigon - Hanoi Securities JSC (SHS) believe that the short-term trend for the VN-Index is to rise above the nearest support level of 1,480 points. 

The benchmark index is poised to target the price range of 1,500-1,537 points, corresponding to the historical peak in January 2022. The VN30 index is also maintaining a strong upward trend after surpassing its historical high in November 2021. 

The market continues to grow as it updates results for Q2 2025, with positive signals emerging from notable stocks.

The securities firm said: "In our six-month outlook report for the second half of 2025, we assess that the VN30 index will struggle to surpass the historical peak of 2021.

"In fact, the VN30 has already exceeded its historical price from November 2021, providing momentum for the VN-Index to continue toward the 2022 peak.

"Technically, the VN30 will need to re-test the peak price after breaking through. The prudent action now is to hold on to growth while evaluating investment opportunities in key growth sectors that are expected to drive GDP growth of over 8 per cent in the second half of the year."

SHS suggests investors maintain a balanced portfolio, focusing on stocks with strong fundamentals in strategic sectors that are expected to outperform the economy. 

Bizhub