World Bank projects Vietnam’s growth to moderate to 6.8 per cent in 2026

World Bank projects Vietnam’s growth to moderate to 6.8 per cent in 2026

While headwinds are expected to temper the pace of expansion, World Bank's latest Vietnam Economic Update, released on May 15, projects growth will moderate to a 6.8 per cent in 2026, following an 8 per cent expansion in 2025.

According to the update, Vietnam’s economy has demonstrated notable resilience in an uncertain global environment. The country's growth is driven by strong exports and investment, a resilient domestic economy, and a sweeping reform agenda amid the largest administrative rationalisation and reorganisation since the economic reforms in the 1980s reforms.

The report notes that while Vietnam’s outlook remains solid, risks remain elevated in the near term. Although manufacturing and exports would continue to anchor growth, the economy’s ability to retain more value domestically, deepen linkages between foreign-invested and domestic firms and raise productivity will be critical for sustaining momentum over the medium term.

“Softer global conditions are making Vietnam's external environment more challenging, with the oil shock adding to downside risks. At the same time, climate shocks, rapid technological change, demographic shifts, and rising infrastructure needs are reshaping the foundations of long‑term growth,” said Mariam J. Sherman, World Bank division director for Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos.

“This calls for further strengthening macroeconomic management, while accelerating reforms. The real test will be to implement, finance, and sustain the ambitious reform agenda now underway, while managing external risks and domestic vulnerabilities, and unlocking the full potential of the domestic private sector to create more and better jobs.”

The report highlights that while Vietnam’s reform agenda is moving in the right direction, translating reforms into results – ensuring that investments are productive, financing is adequate, and reform implementation keeps pace with ambition – requires sustained efforts. Done well, these efforts can help Vietnam build a virtuous cycle of investor confidence, private investment, growth, and resilience, while making credible progress towards high-income status.

The Vietnam Economic Update is a biannual report assessing recent economic developments, the outlook, and selected policy priorities.

VIR