Strong fundamentals to keep Vietnam at the top of ASEAN growth rankings

Strong fundamentals to keep Vietnam at the top of ASEAN growth rankings

Maybank forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth of 7.8 per cent in 2026 and 7.9 per cent in 2027, making it the fastest-growing major economy in ASEAN.

The view of Ho Chi Minh City. Photo: Le Toan

Growth is expected to remain resilient despite global uncertainties, supported by AI-driven electronics exports, robust foreign investment inflows and sustained infrastructure spending. The outlook for the second half of 2026 remains favourable, underpinned by higher-quality overseas funding, continued supply chain diversification, major infrastructure projects and supportive fiscal and monetary policies.

The second quarter market earnings growth is expected to come in slightly above expectations. Banks, retail, and energy are likely to outperform, supported by lower provisioning expenses, stronger electronics prices, and elevated oil prices. Real estate, steel, and air logistics should be broadly in line with expectations, while marine logistics may exceed forecasts. In contrast, fertilisers and the broader chemicals sector are likely to weaken due to sharply lower urea prices. Overall, with five sectors expected to beat, four to meet, and only one to miss expectations, market earnings growth should exceed forecasts, albeit by a narrow margin.

Maybank remains constructive on Vietnam equities, maintaining its VN-Index target of 2,000 as the market continues to benefit from resilient economic growth, pragmatic policymaking and ongoing capital market reforms despite heightened global uncertainty. Market-wide EPS growth is expected to reach 13–16 per cent in 2026, supported by strong domestic fundamentals, infrastructure investment and policy execution.

Vietnam's FTSE emerging market upgrade from September remains a supportive catalyst for the Vietnam market over the next 12 months. It favours companies aligned with the country's strategic development priorities, including infrastructure, energy, financials and beneficiaries of the market upgrade.

These findings were presented at Invest ASEAN 2026, held by Maybank on 7–8 July in Singapore. The event attracted around 200 institutional investors and prime brokerage clients with a combined $23 trillion in global assets under management.

Vietnam has the largest representation at Invest ASEAN this year, with 14 participating companies, reflecting growing investor interest in one of the region’s fastest-growing economies. Spanning banking, technology, consumer, healthcare, manufacturing and renewable energy sectors, the companies were selected based on clients’ preferred names, a mix of mid and large caps, readiness to engage with global investors, and Maybank’s research views.

Kim Thien Quang, CEO of Maybank Investment Bank Vietnam said, “We are pleased to showcase Vietnam’s investment opportunities at Invest ASEAN, connecting leading Vietnamese companies with global investors. Amid an increasingly complex global environment, Vietnam’s resilient economy continues to reinforce its long-term investment appeal.”

VIR