Credit institutions forecast lower pre-tax profit growth in 2026

Credit institutions forecast lower pre-tax profit growth in 2026

Credit institutions expect the business outlook to remain positive in 2026 but are more cautious about profit growth, according to the latest survey by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV).

In 2026, credit growth is projected to continue at a high level of more than 18 per cent, and bad debt is expected to continue to be well controlled. — Photo vneconomy.vn

Under the survey on business trends of credit institutions in the first quarter of 2026, lenders said overall business performance and pre-tax profits in the fourth quarter of 2025 and for the whole of 2025 continued to improve, but still fell short of expectations in the previous survey. They forecast the positive trend will continue in 2026, although pre-tax profit growth is expected to be lower than in 2025.

In 2026, credit growth is projected to remain high at more than 18 per cent, while bad debt is expected to stay under control.

The survey showed customer demand for banking services, including deposits, payments and cards, improved significantly in the fourth quarter of 2025 but did not meet expectations. Demand for loans and deposits rose more strongly than demand for payment and card services. Notably, demand for loans among corporate customers increased more than among individual customers.

In the first quarter of 2026 and throughout the year, credit institutions expect demand for banking services to continue improving, particularly loan demand.

Liquidity in the banking system in the fourth quarter of 2025 and throughout the year continued to improve and remained in good condition compared with 2024, although the pace of improvement was slightly lower than forecast in the previous survey. Interest rates on Vietnamese đồng deposits edged up in the fourth quarter of 2025 to meet higher capital demand at year-end.

Credit institutions expect liquidity to continue improving in the first quarter of 2026 and throughout the year. Capital mobilisation is projected to rise by 4.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2026 and 16.3 per cent for the whole year, with deposits of under six months’ maturity expected to grow more strongly than in the previous year.

Meanwhile, credit is forecast to increase by 4.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2026 and reach 18.1 per cent for the full year, up 1.5 percentage points compared with the SBV’s September 2025 survey.

Customer risk levels are expected to rise slightly in the fourth quarter of 2025 but ease marginally for the year as a whole compared with 2024. In the first quarter of 2026, credit institutions expect risk levels to continue to decline and remain stable throughout the year.

By the end of 2025, the average non-performing loan ratio of the banking system edged up slightly from the end of 2024 due to strong credit growth. However, this ratio is expected to decline in 2026.

Credit institutions also assess that objective factors, such as the economic environment and macroeconomic policies, will contribute to improved business operations in 2026. 

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