UOB raises Việt Nam’s 2026 growth forecast to 9.2%

UOB raises Việt Nam’s 2026 growth forecast to 9.2%

The Singapore-based bank expects growth of about 9.7 per cent in the fourth quarter, supported by public investment disbursement, seasonally strong exports and record foreign direct investment inflows.

A factory in Huế City. — VNA/VNS Photo

Singapore-based UOB has raised its 2026 growth forecast for Việt Nam to 9.2 per cent from 8.5 per cent after the economy expanded by 9.95 per cent in the third quarter, its fastest pace since the third quarter of 2022.

The bank expects growth of about 9.7 per cent in the fourth quarter, supported by year-end public investment disbursement, seasonally strong exports and record foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows.

UOB also revised up its 2027 growth forecast to 8.8 per cent from 8.4 per cent, citing the potential for FDI projects to expand production capacity, as well as Resolution No 19-NQ/TW, issued on July 28, 2026, which maintains the policy focus on economic growth, industrial upgrading and higher-value manufacturing.

The Vietnamese government's 10 per cent growth target for 2026 would require expansion of around 12.5-13 per cent in the fourth quarter, a pace UOB considers unlikely to be achieved. Nevertheless, the bank expects full-year growth to exceed the 8 per cent recorded in 2025.

Risks to the outlook include potential energy price spikes linked to the unresolved US-Iran conflict, tougher US tariff measures, electricity supply and other infrastructure constraints, as well as delays in public investment execution.

UOB also raised its forecast for average consumer price inflation in 2026 to 4.7 per cent from 4.1 per cent, above the government's inflation ceiling.

Despite the stronger growth and inflation outlook, the bank expects the State Bank of Vietnam to keep its refinancing rate at 4.5 per cent through 2027 under its base-case scenario, although rising inflationary pressures could increase the risk of monetary tightening.

UOB’s current USD/VNĐ forecasts are 26,300 for the fourth quarter of 2026, 26,600 for the first quarter of 2027 and 26,800 for both the second and third quarters of 2027. 

Bizhub