Growth must be balanced with macro stability: experts

Growth must be balanced with macro stability: experts

Despite recording its strongest first-half growth since 2000, Việt Nam must address emerging risks in trade, credit and inflation to maintain sustainable growth, economists say.

Participants at the conference on Thursday. — VNS Photo Tố Như

Việt Nam’s strongest first-half economic growth in more than two decades has highlighted the economy’s resilience, but experts warn that maintaining the same momentum will require greater attention to risks related to trade, credit, inflation and business competitiveness.

The economy expanded by 8.18 per cent in the first six months of 2026, the highest first-half growth rate since Việt Nam began publishing such data in 2000, according to experts speaking at a conference on Việt Nam’s economic outlook held by the Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences on Thursday.

Dr Nguyễn Đình Chúc, director of the Institute of Vietnam and World Economy, said the result reflected Việt Nam’s ability to adapt to a challenging global environment, with growth supported mainly by services, manufacturing and international trade.

Exports increased 27.1 per cent year-on-year in the first half, while second-quarter exports rose 22.7 per cent. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) also remained above the 50-point threshold for 12 consecutive months, showing continued expansion in manufacturing.

However, Chúc said strong growth figures also came with structural challenges that needed to be addressed to ensure sustainable development.

Maintaining high growth momentum must go hand in hand with macro-economic stability, especially as risks related to trade, credit and inflation continue to emerge, experts said.

One of the biggest concerns is the widening trade deficit. Việt Nam recorded a trade deficit of more than US$16 billion in the first half of the year, the highest level in many years.

Although more than 94 per cent of imports were production materials serving manufacturing and exports, the deficit could put pressure on the exchange rate and foreign reserves, experts said.

They also noted that foreign-invested enterprises still accounted for nearly 80 per cent of total exports, while domestic value added remained limited, showing that local businesses have yet to move deeper into global supply chains.

Rapid credit growth also needs close monitoring, experts said.

Việt Nam’s credit-to-GDP ratio has reached around 115 per cent, increasing the need to develop alternative capital channels rather than depending mainly on bank lending to support economic expansion.

Despite having fiscal space, with public debt at slightly above 30 per cent of GDP, Việt Nam still faces challenges from limited budget revenue, changing revenue sources and the need to improve the efficiency of public spending.

Business resilience was also highlighted as a key factor. While the number of newly established and returning businesses has increased, enterprises continue to face pressure from global competition and changes such as the implementation of the global minimum tax.

Inflation has also become a key issue. The average consumer price index rose 4.38 per cent in the first half, close to the full-year target of 4.5 per cent, while core inflation increased 4.12 per cent.

Dr Đặng Xuân Thanh, vice president of the Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences, said 2026 was an important year as the country begins implementing new socio-economic development goals.

However, external risks remain significant, including strategic competition among major economies in trade, technology, finance and energy, along with geopolitical conflicts that continue to affect global supply chains.

Experts said Việt Nam’s target of achieving growth of more than 10 per cent in 2026, increasing trade by 15-16 per cent and keeping inflation under control would be challenging but possible if policies were implemented effectively.

They said priorities should focus on managing the trade deficit, ensuring credit safety, strengthening domestic enterprises and preserving macro-economic stability to create a foundation for long-term sustainable growth. 

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