Việt Nam’s economy in 2026: opportunities from new growth drivers

Việt Nam’s economy in 2026: opportunities from new growth drivers

Lê Thị Thuỳ Vân, Deputy Director of the Institute for Economic and Financial Strategy and Policy under the Ministry of Finance spoke with Vietnam News Agency about key solutions to help the economy sustain growth momentum.

As the global economy is forecast to continue facing heightened uncertainty, Việt Nam with a highly open economy, will face significant pressure. Lê Thị Thuỳ Vân, Deputy Director of the Institute for Economic and Financial Strategy and Policy under the Ministry of Finance, spoke with Vietnam News Agency about key solutions to help the economy overcome risks, seize opportunities and sustain growth momentum.

Lê Thị Thuỳ Vân. Deputy Director of the Institute for Economic and Financial Strategy and Policy under the Ministry of Finance.

Many international organisations believe the global economy in 2026 will face significant uncertainty. What are your views?

Risks to the global economy in 2026 will continue to stem from uncertainty in global trade, particularly the US tariff policies. Although countries entered negotiations in 2025, final outcomes have yet to be reached. This will remain a major uncertainty which might affect global trade as well as investment and growth prospects worldwide.

The second uncertainty comes from geopolitical instability in regions such as Russia, the Middle East and Ukraine, which will continue to disrupt global supply chains and weigh on overall economic growth. 

The third risks are related to non-traditional security threats such as climate change, natural disasters and epidemics. These risks are increasingly beyond control and will affect infrastructure investment capacity and other factors that underpin the sustainable growth of economies around the world. 

What are the forecasts by international organisations about the global growth outlook for 2026, and what are the main growth drivers? 

The latest updates from international organisations such as the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), suggest a positive outlook with global growth projected at around 3 per cent. 

With regard to major growth drivers in 2026, Asian economies are expected to play a leading role with India projected to grow by around 6.3 per cent, along with ASEAN countries. 

Among developed economies, the IMF forecast the US economy to grow by around 2 per cent while Japan and the EU are expected to expand at only 1 per cent. 

In 2025, investment related to green transition and digital transformation will become a new driver to expand investment and support long-term growth. In addition, some countries are placing greater attention on the low-altitude economy, including the use of robots for goods transportation and smart devices in agriculture and manufacturing. 

At the same time, the diversification of supply chains and major trading partners, instead of heavy dependence on traditional markets, is also a bright spot that countries are counting on to promote growth.

How will global risks affect Việt Nam and what are your recommendations to mitigate risks and sustain growth?

Lê Thị Thuỳ Vân. Deputy Director of the Institute for Economic and Financial Strategy and Policy under the Ministry of Finance.

Việt Nam has a high degree of trade openness, so decisions such as the US tariff policies have significant impacts on the country’s key export sectors, including textiles and garments, footwear, wood products and electronics. 

In addition, geopolitical and trade volatility, along with trade fragmentation, can disrupt supply chains, increase logistics costs and even affect foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into Việt Nam.

To cope with external shocks while ensuring Việt Nam’s growth targets in 2026 and beyond, the first solution is to ensure macroeconomic stability. Recently, the Government and the National Assembly’s resolution on the 2026 socio-economic develop plant set a GDP growth target of 10 per cent while keeping inflation under control at below 4.5 per cent.

Timely responses to changes in other countries’ trade policies, together with efforts to seek new trading partners and fully leverage free trade agreements (FTAs), especially with new partners outside the U,S such as ASEAN, other Asian economies and Latin American countries, are crucial to securing new export markets.

Another solution is to capitalise on new growth regions and poles arising from the administrative restructuring to create spillover effects. 

Equally important, it is necessary to search for new growth drivers for Việt Nam from green transition, digital transformation and the development of the low-altitude economy based on the studies from experiences of countries such as China and Japan.  

Still, the core solutions are to improve the labour productivity and promote science and technology, innovation to boost growth from the supply side, while expanding the domestic market by tapping the consumption potential of a population of 100 million to stimulate growth from the demand side.

This should go hand in hand with promoting balanced development among economic sectors, in which the state sector plays a leading role in infrastructure investment, while encouraging private-sector investment in science and technology, innovation and digital transformation. 

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