Middle East conflict could cost Vietnam $8 billion in farm exports

Middle East conflict could cost Vietnam $8 billion in farm exports

Vietnam’s agricultural exports could lose $1- $8 billion if the Middle East conflict drags on from one month to a year, as supply chain disruptions and rising logistics costs weigh on trade flows.

Photo: Ministry of Agriculture and Environment

At a regular press briefing held by the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment on March 11, Tran Gia Long, deputy director of the Planning and Finance Department, said the ministry was developing scenarios to assess potential impacts of the Middle East conflict on Vietnam’s agricultural sector.

Long noted that the escalating tensions in the region have heightened risks of supply chain disruptions, particularly along shipping routes to Europe, while also pushing up global energy and transport costs, which could weigh on Vietnam’s agricultural exports.

Under a scenario where the conflict lasts for around one month, Vietnam’s agricultural, forestry, and fisheries exports could decline by more than $1 billion. Of this, exports to the Middle East may fall by around $182 million, while shipments to Europe and Africa could decline by $770 million and $91 million, respectively.

If the conflict extends to three months, losses in agricultural exports could reach $3-3.5 billion. Exports to the Middle East may decline by $500-600 million, while shipments to North Africa could fall by $200-250 million and exports to the EU by $1.5-1.6 billion.

In a worst-case scenario where the conflict persists for a year, exports to the Middle East could be completely disrupted, while shipments to Europe and North Africa may drop by at least 50-60 per cent.

Last year, Vietnam exported $1.74 billion worth of agricultural products to the Middle East, with key items including cashew nuts worth nearly $600 million, seafood at $325 million, and coffee at $300 million.

Le Ba Anh, deputy director of the Department of Quality, Processing and Market Development, said the agricultural sector was already facing direct impacts from the conflict, including shipping disruptions and longer delivery times. Some maritime carriers have reportedly suspended routes to the Middle East, while insurance costs have increased.

“This situation particularly affects exporters of products that require refrigerated containers, such as seafood and fruit and vegetables,” he said. “Indirect costs, including higher oil prices, will also raise production expenses.”

To mitigate the impact and offset potential losses, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment said it would step up exports to traditional markets such as China, Japan, ASEAN, South Korea, the EU, and the United States.

For 2026, Vietnam’s agricultural sector has set a target of $73-74 billion in total exports of agricultural, forestry, and fisheries products, of which agricultural products alone are expected to contribute around $40 billion.

VIR