Deposit, lending rates forecast to remain stable despite interbank rate volatility

Deposit, lending rates forecast to remain stable despite interbank rate volatility

Interbank interest rates in Việt Nam are not sufficient to become a benchmark for deposit and lending rates.

The overnight rate unexpectedly surged to 11.1 per cent per year on March 2, an increase of 6.3 percentage points compared to the previous session. — Photo vietnamfinance.vn

Sharp swings in interbank lending rates have rattled Việt Nam’s money market in recent weeks, but experts say deposit and lending rates for businesses and households are likely to remain broadly stable this year.

Early last month, the Vietnamese money market experienced rare volatility as Vietnamese đồng lending rates on the interbank market surged across all short-term tenors, peaking at 16.39 per cent per year for overnight loans on February 3. The spike reflected a sharp rise in short-term capital demand among credit institutions.

However, after just over three weeks, by February 26, rates had cooled to 2.83 per cent per year for overnight loans. Rates for one-week, two-week and one-month terms stood at 5.62 per cent, 6.36 per cent and 7.31 per cent per year respectively.

On March 2, the overnight rate rose again to 11.1 per cent per year, up 6.3 percentage points from the previous session. The one-week rate increased by 4.5 percentage points to 2 per cent per year, the two-week rate climbed by 2.25 percentage points to 9.25 per cent and the one-month rate rose by 0.6 percentage points to 7.8 per cent per year.

Trần Ngọc Báu, chief executive of financial data company WiGroup, forecasts that interbank rates may continue to see significant volatility this year.

According to Báu, the size and structure of the banking system’s balance sheet have changed markedly compared with four to five years ago, making traditional regulatory tools less effective. In the short and medium term, without sufficiently strong structural adjustments, the market may still experience sudden fluctuations. He believes it could take years to fully address these volatilities.

Despite the potential turbulence in interbank rates, Báu predicts that deposit and lending rates will stabilise around current levels and may edge up slightly for some loans as credit room is tighter this year.

Interest rates are unlikely to surge dramatically or fall back to the lows seen in the 2024–25 period, he noted, explaining that interbank rates in Việt Nam do not serve as a direct benchmark for deposit and lending rates. Market 1, between banks and the public, operates under its own structure and is not directly interconnected with the interbank market, or Market 2.

Analysts at KBSV Securities believe capital imbalances in the banking system will persist through the first quarter. While rates are unlikely to return to previous lows, they are expected to ease somewhat and gradually stabilise in the second quarter.

Meanwhile, Techcombank’s analysis team considers the spike in interbank rates around Tết (Lunar New Year) to be a short-term factor. It forecasts the average interbank rate for the year at around 4–6 per cent per annum for the one-week term. Deposit rates are projected to rise by approximately 0.65–0.8 percentage points, assuming public investment disbursement remains strong and the budget deficit stays around VNĐ300–400 trillion (US$11.4–15.2 billion), injecting substantial liquidity into the economy.

Data from WiGroup’s WiChart show the average 12-month deposit rate at MB, ACB, Techcombank and VPBank is 5.44 per cent per year. For most of 2025, the rate ranged between 4.68 per cent and below 5 per cent. It has exceeded 5 per cent since December 2025.

Similarly, deposit rates at smaller commercial banks have risen by 0.14 percentage points compared with the end of 2025 to 5.88 per cent per year.

State-owned commercial banks, including Agribank, BIDV, VietinBank and Vietcombank, now offer an average deposit rate of 5.2 per cent per year, after maintaining 4.68 per cent for an extended period. 

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