Credit growth plans at 15% in 2026, focusing on macroeconomic stability

Credit growth plans at 15% in 2026, focusing on macroeconomic stability

Under the latest statement on managing credit growth in 2026, the SBV said that this year it will focus on maintaining macroeconomic stability and sustainable development, and control risk areas and real estate.

Headquarters of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) in Hà Nội. The SBV said that in the first quarter of 2026, credit institutions must ensure that the credit growth rate does not exceed 25 per cent of the annual target. — Photo sbv.gov.vn

Việt Nam’s central bank has set a credit growth target of 15 per cent for 2026, down from last year’s target of 16 per cent and well below the 19.1 per cent expansion recorded in 2025, signalling a more cautious approach as it prioritises stability and risk control.

In its latest statement on managing credit growth this year, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) said the focus will be on maintaining macroeconomic stability and sustainable development, while tightening control over risk-prone areas, particularly real estate.

“In the first quarter of 2026, credit institutions must ensure that the credit growth rate does not exceed 25 per cent of the annual target and ensure sufficient capital balance. Besides, the credit growth rate for the real estate sector of the credit institution in 2026 must not exceed its overall credit growth rate at the end of 2025,” the SBV stated.

The central bank noted that the overall credit growth target could be adjusted depending on actual conditions, as long as it remains consistent with goals of inflation control, macroeconomic stability, support for economic growth and the safety of the credit institution system.

According to the SBV, monetary policy will continue to be managed proactively, flexibly, promptly and effectively, in line with resolutions of the National Assembly and directives of the Government and the Prime Minister.

This approach will be implemented in close coordination with a focused and targeted expansionary fiscal policy and other macroeconomic measures, with the aim of safeguarding macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, restructuring weak banks under mandatory transfer and supporting economic growth.

To guide implementation, the SBV has issued a written notice to credit institutions, publicly and transparently setting out the principles for assigning credit growth quotas for 2026. The targets allocated to each institution are based on 2024 rating scores in accordance with Circular 52/2018/TT-SBV.

The central bank has also instructed lenders to strictly control credit growth in sectors with potential risks and in real estate, while channelling capital towards production and business activities, priority sectors and key growth drivers of the economy. This is intended to ensure money market liquidity and the overall safety of the banking system.

“Credit institutions must seriously, fully and promptly implement the directives of the Government and Government leaders regarding the effective and timely deployment of credit solutions. In addition, credit growth must be safe and in accordance with the law, based on risk management capacity, liquidity situation and capital raising ability, ensuring the safety ratios, especially liquidity and solvency ratios, improving credit quality, using capital for the right purposes and effectively, limiting the increase and emergence of bad debts and ensuring operational safety,” the SBV said.

Credit institutions are also required to strengthen credit assessment and appraisal, enhance internal inspection and control of lending activities to ensure compliance with regulations and promptly detect and strictly handle violations of the law and internal rules.

The SBV said it will continue to closely monitor developments to manage credit growth proactively and flexibly, supporting the banking system in supplying capital to the economy while ensuring system safety in line with macroeconomic stability and inflation control.

Last year, credit expanded by 19.1 per cent while capital mobilisation rose by 14 per cent. Credit growth outpaced capital raising in 2025, putting pressure on banking system liquidity at times, especially in the run-up to the Lunar New Year.

Phạm Chí Quang, Director of the SBV’s Monetary Policy Department, noted that with such rapid expansion, the credit-to-GDP ratio has reached 146 per cent, a high level for a lower-middle-income country such as Việt Nam. He said it is therefore necessary to further develop the capital market and promote alternative funding channels to ease pressure on bank credit. 

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