Vietnam’s GDP forecast to grow by 9 per cent in 2026

Vietnam’s GDP forecast to grow by 9 per cent in 2026

Vietnam's real GDP is forecast to grow by 9 per cent in 2026, underpinned by an ambitious government agenda aimed at positioning the year as a critical to the country's development trajectory, according to a report by KIS Research.

A key pillar of this strategy is the acceleration of public investment, particularly in large-scale infrastructure projects, which is expected to alleviate structural bottlenecks, improve connectivity, and crowd in private sector participation. Beyond public investment, domestic demand is likely to remain a stable growth anchor, mainly driven by supportive fiscal policies.

At the same time, KIS Research expects export performance to remain resilient, supported by Vietnam's proven comparative advantages amid the turbulence caused by reciprocal tariffs. Taken together, these factors should drive a broad-based acceleration in economic activity across key sectors, setting a solid foundation for the opening year of the country's so-called '"National Rise" era.

The Vietnamese government has set an exceptionally ambitious outlook for 2026, targeting double-digit real GDPgrowth. This target marks the opening year of the 2026-2030 Socioeconomic Development Plan and serves as a strategic mandate to usher the economy into a new phase of development.

To support this ambition, the National Assembly, across its three sessions this year, has approved a series of critical public investment measures, spanning land clearance and funding mechanisms, enhancing the flexibility and execution capacity of both central and local governments to fast-track nationally important projects. Together, these steps aim to lay the groundwork for a renewed infrastructure push.

KIS Research forecasts that public investment will grow by 49.3 per cent on-year in 2026, reaching VND1.1 quadrillion ($41.84 billion). The main impetus will come from the dual effect of the capital backlog transferred from 2025 and the ambitious new capital plan for 2026.

Pilot mechanisms applied to the three key growth engines have streamlined approval processes for large-scale projects. Furthermore, the 2025 budget surplus, resulting from strong tax revenue and low public debt, is currently stable at 36-37% of GDP, far from the 60 per cent ceiling, creating a solid fiscal buffer that will allow the government to pursue aggressive investment spending.

To ensure project progress and bankability, the government is resolving institutional issues in Hanoi, Danang, and Ho Chi Minh City. Key legal instruments will provide the necessary foundation for land consolidation and public-private partnership models. This will allow transit-oriented development to become a scalable and replicable model across these strategic growth poles.

With a significant contribution to GDP, domestic consumption will serve as a primary pillar in realising the country's ambitious growth targets. Total retail sales in 2026 are forecast to grow by 10.9 per cent, reaching VND7.72 quadrillion ($293.59 billion), mainly led by the full absorption of the basic wage increase and the regional minimum wage adjustment implemented from mid-2025.

In addition, fiscal policies such as extending the 2 per cent VAT reduction and adjusting the personal income tax deduction will play a role in protecting real disposable income. Meanwhile, the recovery of the labour market in new industrial zones will ensure the stability of household cash flows, providing a foundation for sustainable consumption.

The report also predicts that Vietnam's exports will grow 17.1 per cent on-year in 2026, reaching $549.7 billion, driven by a competitive reciprocal tariff rate of approximately 12.6 per cent that attracts order from markets facing punitive tariffs. This momentum will be further bolstered by a favourable global context, where unprecedented stimulus and rebounding consumer demand in the US will provide essential tailwinds for export growth.

VIR