VN-Index may test 1,600 points, but profit-taking pressure remains: expert

VN-Index may test 1,600 points, but profit-taking pressure remains: expert

Analysts believe that bullish sentiment continues to dominate, but profit-taking pressure and divergence among stock groups could trigger short-term volatility.

A DSC Securities office in Đà Nẵng City. — Photo dsc.com.vn

The Vietnamese stock market enters the new trading week amid expectations that the VN-Index could test the psychological threshold of 1,600 points, after a strong rally last week saw it officially surpass its historic 2022 peak.

Analysts believe that bullish sentiment continues to dominate, but profit-taking pressure and divergence among stock groups could trigger short-term volatility.

Phan Tấn Nhật, head of analysis at Sài Gòn – Hà Nội Securities (SHS), said the VN-Index was being supported by positive momentum across various sectors, particularly those that have not risen significantly and are reporting favourable second-quarter results.

The nearest support levels are around 1,537 points and 1,500 points, while the 1,600-point psychological zone will be the main challenge this week.

“With the current momentum, the VN-Index can certainly aim for 1,600 points, but the market will see sharp divergence due to high margin pressure and profit-taking in stocks that have surged rapidly,” Nhật said.

Analysts at Mirae Asset Securities forecast that in the first half of August, corrective pressure will persist as the market digests mixed news on tariffs and corporate earnings.

Their base-case scenario sees the VN-Index holding above the 1,486-point support before breaking higher, while the less favourable scenario would be a retest of the 1,470-point level. Nevertheless, they maintain a positive medium- to long-term outlook, viewing corrections as opportunities to establish a new equilibrium.

In addition to technical factors, market prospects are being buoyed by a supportive macroeconomic environment. SSI Research noted that Việt Nam has reached a trade agreement with the US that sets a reciprocal tariff rate of 20 per cent, significantly lower than the 46 per cent announced in April, easing concerns over tariff risks.

Low interest rates, sustained growth in foreign direct investment and public investment, as well as expectations of a market upgrade in October are also reinforcing investor confidence.

Last week the VN-Index gained 89.74 points, or 6 per cent, to reach a record 1,584.95 points. The VN30 Index rose by 7.15 per cent to 1,729.08 points.

The highlight was the August 5 session, which saw a record-matching volume of 3.2 billion shares traded, worth nearly VNĐ83 trillion (US$3.2 billion) – the highest in history. Weekly market liquidity reached VNĐ253.5 trillion, reflecting robust capital flows across sectors.

Steel, construction, fertiliser, agriculture, seafood, oil and gas, real estate and financial stocks all posted positive performances. However, foreign investors net sold more than VNĐ12.8 trillion on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE), focusing on several large-cap stocks.

According to SSI Research, second-quarter 2025 post-tax profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies rose by 31.5 per cent year-on-year, with full-year 2025 earnings expected to grow 13.8 per cent and the second half alone potentially reaching 15.5 per cent growth.

The firm projects the VN-Index could reach the 1,750–1,800-point range in 2026, viewing current short-term fluctuations as opportunities to accumulate for the longer-term uptrend. 

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