Pepper exports expected to rebound in H2 on rising prices

Pepper exports expected to rebound in H2 on rising prices

High prices are encouraging new plantations in some countries, but these will take two or three years to have an impact on supply, Lê Việt Nam from the association said.

Việt Nam’s pepper exports are expected to recover strongly in the second half of this year. — VNA/VNS Photo Ngọc Minh

Việt Nam’s pepper exports are expected to recover strongly in the second half of this year on improving global demand and potential changes in the US tax policies, according to the Việt Nam Pepper and Spice Association.

Hoàn Thị Liên, the association’s President, said at a mid-year review conference on Wednesday that exports have been slow since the beginning of this year, largely due to uncertainty over the US tariff policies. However, a rebound is expected to start from August as importers will need to increase purchasing to replenish low inventories amid growing consumption and production demand.

“There are positive signs. We anticipated positive developments in the US tax policy together with improvements in global demand toward the year-end,” she said.

The association’s statistics showed that Việt Nam exported 124,133 tonnes of pepper in the first six months of this year, down 12.9 per cent year-on-year. However, export value increased by 34.1 per cent to US$850.5 million due to high prices.

Black pepper averaged d$6,665 per tonne, up 93.6 per cent, while white pepper hit $8,079 per tonne, up 63 per cent.

High prices are encouraging new plantations in some countries, but these will take two or three years to have an impact on supply, Lê Việt Nam from the association said.

The US remains the largest importer, accounting for 23.6 per cent of Việt Nam’s pepper exports, though volumes fell 29.4 per cent over the same period last year. Other important markets included India, the UAE, China and Germany with stable imports, reflecting a market diversification of Việt Nam’s pepper.

Exports to China slightly increased in the first half but are not expected to be a repeat of the buying spur seen in 2023 due to rising competition from Indonesia, which saw an increase by more than 100 per cent in pepper exports to China in the first four months of this year.

Việt Nam’s pepper harvest is estimated at 180,000 tonnes in 2025, 10,000 tonnes lower than last year. Despite high and stable prices, pepper cultivation has dropped significantly as farmers shift to more lucrative crops such as durian and coffee.

The association expected a clearer tax policy for agricultural exports to facilitate trade. Renewed global demand will drive exports in the rest of 2025, the association said. 

Bizhub