Steel industry faces challenges in 2026

Steel industry faces challenges in 2026

The domestic steel industry has positive prospects in 2026, though rising competition and export headwinds are widening performance gaps among producers.

On January 30, steel major Hoa Phat Group announced its fourth-quarter 2025 business results, reporting revenue of approximately $1.89 billion, up 34 per cent on-year, while net profit around $156 million, surging 38 per cent compared to one year ago.

For the full year, Hoa Phat recorded revenue of about $6.33 billion and net profit of around $620 million, representing increases of 13 per cent and 29 per cent on-year, respectively. While the company fell short of its revenue target, it exceeded its profit target by three percentage points.

Hoa Phat’s strong performance came amid better conditions for the steel sector – its core business – driven by rising domestic demand and anti-dumping duties on hot-rolled steel imports from China, which reduced competitive pressure in the market.

The group capitalised on the steel industry’s recovery by bringing two additional blast furnaces into operation at the Hoa Phat Dung Quat Integrated Steel Complex, based in Dung Quat Economic Zone in the central province of Quang Ngai.

As a result, the company set a new historical record in sales of hot-rolled coil, construction steel, wire rod and steel billets, with total output surpassing 10.6 million tonnes, up 31 per cent on-year.

A stronger focus on the recovering steel market also helped Hoa Sen Group post a 42 per cent on-year increase in profit, reaching approximately $29.2 million in the 2024-2025 fiscal year, despite revenue declining 7 per cent to around $1.46 billion.

However, Hoa Sen’s performance reversed in the first quarter of the 2025-2026 fiscal year (Q4/2025), with revenue falling 18 per cent on-year to about $335 million and net profit plunging 62.3 per cent to approximately $2.5 million.

Similarly, Nam Kim Steel JSC reported weaker results in Q4/2025, returning to a loss after 10 consecutive profitable quarters. The company’s net revenue declined nearly 30 per cent on-year to around $127 million, while the company posted a net loss of about $360,000.

For the full year, Nam Kim recorded revenue of approximately $592 million and net profit of around $7.9 million, down 28 per cent and 56 per cent, respectively, from 2024.

Nam Kim’s most notable achievement in 2025 was its shift in sales structure towards the domestic market, which helped the company remain profitable through Q3/2025 after a prolonged loss-making period in previous years.

Nevertheless, volatility in export markets significantly affected operations, as Vietnamese coated steel products were subject to US anti-dumping duties with preliminary rates ranging from 40 per cent to 80 per cent.

Also posting a reversal in Q4/2025, SMC Trading Investment JSC recorded a four-digit surge in profit, with net profit jumping to approximately $15.4 million.

For the full year 2025, the company reaped after-tax profit of around $9.9 million, up 417 per cent on-year.

This strong performance marked the payoff from SMC’s efforts in Q4/2025 to divest inefficient investments, improve profit margins, and secure income from asset disposals.

According to MB Securities, the steel industry’s outlook for 2026 remains positive, supported by the continued application of anti-dumping measures.

Steel prices are also expected to rise amid a recovery in the real estate market and stronger public investment disbursement.

Under these conditions, the domestic market is expected to remain a key pillar for steel producers, as tariff barriers and oversupply in major markets such as the United States and the European Union continue to weigh on steel exports.

This divergence is likely to lead to uneven business prospects, with export-dependent companies facing greater challenges. As such, shifting focus towards the domestic market – an approach adopted by firms such as Hoa Sen and Nam Kim in 2025 – may be a strategy worth considering.

However, the domestic market also poses challenges, as many steelmakers are aggressively expanding capacity, pushing overall steel supply and intensifying competition.

Moreover, the entry of Vingroup, a private conglomerate with strong financial resources, into the steel industry through VinMetal in October 2025 is heightening competitive pressure. This development presents additional obstacles for steel companies seeking restructuring and scale expansion, such as Nam Kim and SMC.

VIR