Comprehensive strategy required for achieving double-digit growth, say experts

Comprehensive strategy required for achieving double-digit growth, say experts

With a highly open economy, Việt Nam remains vulnerable to increasingly complex global developments and internal weaknesses, Deputy Prime Minister Nguyễn Chí Dũng said.

Việt Nam has set an assertive growth target of at least 8 per cent in 2025. — VNA/VNS Photo Tuấn Anh

Việt Nam’s ambition to achieve economic growth rate exceeding 10 per cent from 2026 to 2030 calls for a comprehensive strategy, deep institutional reforms and the optimisation of new growth drivers, particularly amid mounting domestic and global challenges, economists have said.

Navigating complex economic headwinds

Amid global economic volatility, Việt Nam has set an assertive growth target of at least 8 per cent in 2025 and double-digit economic expansion in the following five years.

At the recent Vietnam Economic Growth Forum 2025, Deputy Prime Minister Nguyễn Chí Dũng reported a 7.52 per cent GDP growth rate in the first half of the year – the highest six-months figure in 15 years. Yet, he cautioned that attaining the set targets will be difficult.

With a highly open economy, Việt Nam remains vulnerable to increasingly complex global developments and internal weaknesses, Dũng said.

Chief Economist at BIDV Dr Cấn Văn Lực cited several challenges, including weak competitiveness, the risk of the middle-income trap, overdependence on exports and foreign investment, low global value chain integration, climate vulnerability, a rapidly ageing population and rising income inequality.

Meanwhile, former Deputy Chairman of the National Assembly Office Dr Nguyễn Sĩ Dũng warned that without thoroughly overhauling the legislative process, Việt Nam may fall short of its development goals. He noted that sub-law documents often distort legislative intent, sowing confusion and hampering business.

Deputy Minister of Justice Nguyễn Thanh Tú acknowledged contradictory, overlapping and impractical legal frameworks. These, he said, impose compliance burdens and stifle innovation, hindering economic momentum.

Unlocking resources, optimising new growth drivers

As traditional growth engines like natural resources, public investment, low-cost labour and low-value exports wane, Việt Nam must shift toward transformative drivers.

Deputy PM Dũng underscored the need for a new mindset, a new vision and bold actions rooted in political will, unity and cooperation with international partners. Achieving fast, sustainable growth requires a new mindset, vision and national posture, he said.

Dr Đặng Đức Anh, deputy director at the Institute for Policy and Strategy Studies under the Party Central Committee's Commission for Policies and Strategies, identified three primary growth engines to secure GDP growth of over 10 per cent.

The first comes from the industrial construction sector, he said, going on to note that processing and manufacturing can drive growth if Việt Nam makes strong technological improvements and climbs higher in the global value chain. Supporting industries hold the largest room for expansion, while large-scale infrastructure projects (expressways, seaports, airports) also give construction a high potential for breakthrough growth.

The second growth engine is the service sector, with tourism, e-commerce, logistics and financial services presenting vast potential, according to Đức Anh.

The third is from local growth hubs. Đức Anh said that many localities have untapped strengths, especially in infrastructure, labour and natural resources. This driver gains traction as institutional reforms, administrative apparatus streamlining and reorganisation of localities are expected to unlock new development space, he added.

From the business perspective, Chairman of Sunhouse Group Nguyễn Xuân Phú highlighted the need for stronger State support, particularly in early-stage market entry. He called for tax incentives and initial support in terms of market, technology and capital access to help firms join global supply chains and enter strategic markets.

Trần Lưu Quang, secretary of the Party Central Committee and head of its Commission for Policies and Strategies, confirmed that double-digit growth is achievable through shared resolve across the Government, businesses and localities.

Achieving double-digit growth doesn’t mean every sector must meet that benchmark individually. What matters is delivering sustainable, inclusive and holistic growth, he noted.

Quang outlined four critical conditions to reach that target: broad consensus and collaboration across the Government, businesses and society; timely settlement of legal and institutional bottlenecks; a development strategy prioritising science, technology, innovation and digital transformation; and strong preparedness for external shocks in an increasingly open economy. 

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