VN-Index may fluctuate near previous peak in first week of June, say experts

VN-Index may fluctuate near previous peak in first week of June, say experts

According to analysts, a decisive breakout will require stronger fundamental catalysts, especially as profit-taking pressure lingers and foreign investors continue to sell.

Investors monitor stock market movements at MB Securities Company. — Photo Bnews.vn

Việt Nam’s stock market is forecast to remain in a sideways trend during the first week of June, as the VN-Index approaches a strong resistance zone around 1,343 points — the peak recorded in March. 

According to analysts, a decisive breakout will require stronger fundamental catalysts, especially as profit-taking pressure lingers and foreign investors continue to sell.

SHS Securities Corporation experts say the VN-Index's short-term trend remains positive, with the nearest support level at 1,320 points. However, selling pressure has become more apparent as the index nears its previous peak, which could narrow the upside potential in the near term.

SHS noted that the major supporting factors in May – including the postponement of new tariffs, progress in trade negotiations, low interest rates and optimism surrounding Resolution 68-NQ/TW, which aims to boost private sector growth – have largely been priced into the market.

Đinh Quang Hinh, head of macro and market strategy at VNDIRECT, advised investors to maintain a moderate equity exposure and consider partially taking profits on stocks that have seen strong gains.

“If the VN-Index corrects to the 1,300-1,320 zone, investors can consider selective bottom-fishing in fundamentally strong stocks in the sectors that have not fully recovered since the April correction such as banks, brokerages, steelmakers and textile and seafood exporters,” Hinh said.

For the trading week from May 27 to 31, the VN-Index rose by 1.38 per cent to 1,332.6 points, marking its fourth consecutive weekly gain. The VN30-Index also added 1.01 per cent to 1,423.68 points, surpassing its March high.

However, the market's advance was marked by notable divergence, with capital flows focusing on sectors with specific growth stories such as real estate, industrial parks, textiles, seafood and steel. In contrast, seaport, transportation, electricity and previously overheated stocks experienced notable corrections in the latter part of the week.

SHS noted that market breadth reflected a high degree of speculative rotation, while liquidity saw a mild decline. Trading value on HoSE increased by 6.3 per cent from the previous week, but the majority of this was concentrated in mid- and small-cap stocks – suggesting that cash flow has yet to spread evenly across the broader market. 

Meanwhile, foreign investors continued their aggressive net selling, offloading more than VNĐ2.7 trillion (US$103.7 million) on HoSE, adding further pressure to overall sentiment.

The market's movement last week showed that buying momentum was strongest at the beginning of the week, driven by news that the US had postponed new tariffs on EU goods and positive expectations from Việt Nam–US trade negotiations.

Export-oriented stocks such as textiles and seafood saw simultaneous ceiling gains during these sessions. However, growing profit-taking pressure in the latter half of the week reduced the VN-Index’s advance and prevented it from holding above 1,340 points.

“The past week clearly demonstrated that capital remains concentrated in stocks with specific narratives, while the broader market lacks the consensus needed to break out decisively. Banking, retail and energy stocks all saw notable corrections,” Hinh added.

Despite short-term concerns, analysts maintain a positive medium-term outlook. The market rebounded strongly in May, rising 8.67 per cent from April, thanks to a confluence of favourable factors. Listed companies continued to deliver solid earnings results in the first quarter of 2025, and interest rates remained at low levels.

Nevertheless, experts recommend investors remain cautious and flexible during the first week of June, as the market is likely to consolidate within the 1,320–1,343 point range, awaiting further macro-economic data or mid-year earnings reports to establish a clearer trend. 

Bizhub