VN-Index may face short-term correction

VN-Index may face short-term correction

Analysts forecast that in the short term, the VN-Index may face a mild correction around the 1,300-point support level.

Investors monitor stock market movements. — Photo baotintuc.vn

Việt Nam’s stock market has posted gains for three consecutive weeks, with the VN-Index returning to its previous peak before the US tariff news triggered a correction in March.

However, after a strong recovery, profit-taking pressure increased noticeably towards the end of last week, prompting growing caution among investors.

Analysts forecast that in the short term, the VN-Index may face a mild correction around the 1,300-point support level. The index is now approaching a strong resistance zone between 1,320 and 1,340 points, its highest level since the beginning of the year, while new upward momentum remains unclear.

Liquidity has also shown signs of weakening, suggesting that capital is adopting a wait-and-see approach, particularly after foreign investors returned to net selling, withdrawing nearly VNĐ800 billion (US$30.8 million) from the market last week.

According to Saigon – Hanoi Securities (SHS), this is not an attractive price zone for additional disbursement, especially for short-term investors.

“After two strong weeks, the VN-Index has returned to its former peak, yet support factors remain uncertain, making a short-term correction quite understandable," SHS said.

"New investment positions should be selected carefully, with a focus on leading companies that have strong fundamentals and long-term growth prospects.”

Nevertheless, medium- and long-term sentiment remains positive. Nguyễn Việt Đức, digital business director at VPBankS Securities, noted that “the worst-case scenario of high tariffs causing serious supply chain disruption is unlikely to occur.”

He predicted that any corrections in the second half of the year would likely be limited to 3–5 per cent, creating more attractive buying opportunities.

By the end of the May 24 trading week, the VN-Index had gained one per cent to reach 1,314.46 points, breaking through the psychological 1,300 mark and revisiting its previous peak. On the northern bourse, the HNX-Index declined one per cent to 216.32 points.

However, market movement showed a clear divergence. Real estate, seaports, electricity, fertilisers and plastics performed positively, while technology–telecommunications, securities, industrial parks and seafood stocks faced correction pressure after strong rallies.

The VN30-Index outperformed, rising 1.8 per cent to 1,409.4, its highest level since March 2025, driven by key stocks such as GAS, VHM, and others in the Vingroup ecosystem.

However, one notable point is that while the VN-Index has risen approximately 4.44 per cent year-to-date, nearly 60 per cent of stocks on HOSE have actually declined. This highlights that cash flow remains concentrated in a few stocks with specific narratives, rather than spreading broadly across the market.

Data shows that the Vingroup alone contributed nearly 100 points to the VN-Index's 56-point rise since the beginning of the year. This means that if large-cap outliers are excluded, the broader market picture appears less optimistic than the index suggests. 

Bizhub