2015 economic forecasts: highlights
2015 economic forecasts: highlights
The following are the most outstanding economic events expected to occur in 2015.
GDP growth rate over 6 percent
Encouraged by 5.98 percent GDP growth rate in 2014, Vietnam has every reason to hope that the growth rate would be higher than 6 percent in 2015, for the first time in the last five years.
The government has set up a target of 6.2 percent in GDP growth in the context of more favorable conditions for the national economy. The sharp fall of oil prices will help reduce input costs, thus helping stimulate investments and demand.
Low inflation
Economists believe that the inflation rate in 2015 would be higher than that of 2014 (1.86 percent), but would not be high.
The prices of some basic goods and services such as electricity and healthcare services would increase as planned, but the price falls of other kinds of goods and services, plus a cautious monetary policy, will help control inflation.
The 2014 CPI increase performance has repeatedly caused surprises. It went slowly in the first months of the year and did not rise in the last months as expected. By contrast, the slowdown of the CPI increase in November and December pulled the CPI increase to a 13-year low.
Dong/dollar exchange rate stabilizes
The record trade surplus of $2 billion in 2014, the overseas remittance of $11 billion and the high disbursed foreign direct investment capital have helped stabilize the dong value. Therefore, the State Bank in 2014 only devalued the dong once, by 1 percent.
Banking sector still in difficulty
The State Bank of Vietnam, while stating that it would follow a cautious monetary policy in 2015, has set up a moderate credit growth rate of 13-15 percent, just a little higher than 2014.
A report showed that the bad debt ratio of the banking system had decreased to 3.7-4.2 percent by the end of 2014.
Busier stock market
The stock market closed on December 31, 2014 with the VN Index at 545.6 points while it exceeded the 640 point threshold once last year.
Experts believe the market will be busier in 2015 with better macroeconomic conditions and predicted better performance of listed companies. Andy Ho of VinaCapital thinks the businesses’ income may increase by 10-15 percent this year.
New FDI wave
There have been more signs showing that international conglomerates are considering relocating their production bases to Vietnam to take full advantage of trade liberalization agreements of which Vietnam is a member.
Textiles & garments, electronics, materials and consumer goods will still be the sectors that attract foreign investors the most.
Real estate market warms up
The real estate market became more active in late 2014, which is an impetus for continued development this year.
Low bank loan interest rates, restored confidence and new laws will help attract investors back to frontier markets, including Vietnam.
