State capital restructuring could unlock new valuation cycle for listed firms

State capital restructuring could unlock new valuation cycle for listed firms

The restructuring could extend beyond the sale of state shareholdings, potentially reallocating state resources while adding new investable assets and increasing share supply on the stock market.

Nội Bài International Airport is operated by Airports Corporation of Vietnam (ACV). The state owned over 94 per cent of ACV as of the end of 2025. — Photo acv.vn

 The new framework for restructuring state capital could accelerate equitisation and divestment while creating opportunities for the revaluation of listed state-linked companies as investors assess their assets, governance and capital efficiency.

Decision 40/2026/QĐ-TTg, effective from August 5, introduces criteria for classifying enterprises for State capital restructuring after a prolonged period of relatively subdued equitisation and divestment activity.

According to BSC Research, the decision follows several major policies on the development of the state economic sector, including Resolution 79-NQ/TW and Decree 57/2026/NĐ-CP, providing a stronger framework for initial public offerings, equitisation and state divestment.

A key change is the shift in state capital management from an emphasis on administrative compliance towards financial efficiency, accompanied by greater autonomy and accountability for enterprises.

Plans for restructuring state capital during 2026-30 are required to be developed and approved by August 31. 

Major economic groups, corporations and state-controlled commercial banks Vietcombank, BIDV and VietinBank will follow separate roadmaps for submission to competent authorities.

Phan Quốc Bửu, head of Research at BIDV Securities Company (BSC), said Decision 40 created stronger links with Decree 57/2026/NĐ-CP and Decrees 365 and 366 issued in 2025.

Changes involving land treatment, enterprise valuation and the assessment of development potential were expected to address obstacles that previously prolonged many equitisation and divestment transactions.

Stocks to watch

The framework could therefore extend beyond the sale of state shareholdings, potentially reallocating state resources while adding new investable assets and increasing share supply on the stock market.

One group attracting particular attention comprises companies with large land banks.

Under Decree 57, the value of advantages associated with annually leased land-use rights must be incorporated into enterprise valuations during capital restructuring. 

Land procedures have also been simplified through the use of a land-use status inventory instead of the previous, more complicated approval process for land-use plans.

The changes could allow asset values at some land-rich enterprises to be reflected more closely in valuations, although large asset portfolios could also make appraisal and valuation more complex.

Bửu identified another potential group as companies with strong core operations and high return on equity, or ROE, whose book values may not fully reflect their prospects.

The new approach incorporating development potential could better capture intangible assets and future earnings capacity rather than relying heavily on net assets recorded on balance sheets.

Companies in sectors where state ownership is expected to decline during 2026-30 could also attract greater attention. 

These include international maritime transport, rubber cultivation and processing, and coffee, where divestment could trigger transactions and valuation expectations.

Meanwhile, state groups expanding into high technology, digital infrastructure and green energy could gain greater flexibility to redeploy resources towards new growth areas.

A significant pool of state capital remains in listed companies.

As of December 31, 2025, state ownership stood at more than 86 per cent at Vietnam Rubber Group, PV Gas, Airports Corporation of Vietnam, Becamex, Petrovietnam Refining and Petrochemical Corporation, Vietnam Maritime Corporation, Vietnam Engine and Agricultural Machinery Corporation and Vietnam Airlines. 

The state also held 79.9 per cent of PV Power, 79.6 per cent of BIDV and 74.8 per cent of Vietcombank.

Nguyễn Thế Minh, director of Investment Banking at An Binh Securities Company (ABS), said the high ownership ratios would leave considerable room for divestment. Where restructuring is implemented, additional shares entering the market could improve free float and liquidity.

However, high state ownership alone would not mean a stock would necessarily benefit. Whether an enterprise is included in a specific restructuring plan and how the process is implemented would remain important considerations.

For investors looking beyond short-term divestment expectations, Bửu said corporate efficiency would be critical.

"An important criterion is ROE, ROA and capital efficiency," he said.

"As the objective of state capital management shifts more strongly towards financial efficiency, enterprises capable of generating good returns on the capital allocated to them will have a clearer advantage."

Governance could provide another source of revaluation. Lower state ownership could give enterprises greater autonomy and access to modern governance practices, allowing capital, assets and human resources to be allocated more efficiently.

In the short term, expectations surrounding divestment and asset revaluation, particularly land assets, could influence investment flows. 

Over a longer horizon, however, changes in governance, resource allocation and capital efficiency would remain key factors determining how individual state-linked companies are valued under the new restructuring cycle. 

Bizhub