New state capital rules could unlock wave of stock revaluations

New state capital rules could unlock wave of stock revaluations

Decision No.40/2026/QD-TTg could revive equitisation and divestment, unlock hidden asset values and sharpen investor focus on listed companies with high state ownership.

After a prolonged period in which equitisation and state capital divestment remained relatively subdued, Decision No.40/2026/QD-TTg dated August 5, 2026, on criteria for classifying enterprises for state capital restructuring, is raising expectations for a new phase.

This could become a catalyst for the revaluation of stocks in companies with state ownership.

According to BSC Research, Decision 40 was issued following a series of important policy documents on the development of the state-owned economic sector, including Resolution No.79-NQ/TW which sets out a new framework for developing Vietnam’s state economic sector and Decree No.57/2026/ND-CP which provides detailed rules for restructuring state capital in enterprises, thereby creating momentum for IPOs, equitisation and divestment.

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The significance lies not only in the list of enterprises in which the state will continue to retain ownership or reduce its stake, but also in a shift in the approach to capital management, from an emphasis on ‘administrative compliance’ towards greater focus on ‘financial efficiency’, while gradually moving from an ‘ask-and-give’ mechanism towards greater ‘autonomy and accountability’.

Notably, August 31 is the deadline for developing and approving plans to restructure state capital at enterprises for 2026-2030.

Economic groups, general corporations covered by the regulations, and state-controlled commercial banks - Vietcombank, BIDV and VietinBank - will have separate roadmaps for submission to the competent authorities for consideration.

This decentralisation is significant, as one of the bottlenecks in previous periods was the lengthy process involving multiple layers of approval.

Phan Quoc Buu, head of Research at BIDV Securities Company (BSC), said Decision 40 creates a link with provisions under Decree No.57/2026/ND-CP, Decree No 365/2025/ND-CP and Decree No. 366/2025/ND-CP.

Changes relating to land treatment, enterprise valuation and the determination of ‘development potential’ are expected to remove diverse bottlenecks that have prolonged many equitisation and divestment deals.

One group attracting market attention is enterprises holding large land banks. Decree No.57/2026/ND-CP stipulates that the value of the benefits associated with land-use rights for leased land with annual rental payments must be included in enterprise value when restructuring capital.

Land procedures have also been simplified through the use of a “Land use status statistics table” in place of the more complex land-use plan approval process previously required.

This opens up the possibility that the asset values of some companies with large land banks will be reflected more accurately.

However, this is also a group requiring caution, as the larger the asset base, the more complex the process of appraising and determining enterprise value becomes.

According to Buu, the second group of interest comprises enterprises with strong core business capabilities and high return-on-equity (ROE), but whose book values do not fully reflect their potential.

The new regulations introduce an approach leveraging the ‘development potential’, which could better capture intangible value and future profit-generating capacity, rather than relying excessively on net assets recorded on the balance sheet.

Opportunities are also emerging in sectors where the state is expected to reduce its ownership ratios during the 2026-2030 period.

These include international maritime transport, rubber cultivation and processing, and coffee, where state capital is expected to have a smaller presence. The process could trigger divestment deals and raise expectations of revaluation for the companies concerned.

Another beneficial group comprises state-owned groups and general corporations expanding into new growth areas such as high technology, digital infrastructure and green energy.

The ability to actively deploy resources for reinvestment could help these enterprises gradually transform their growth models, rather than remaining dependent solely on traditional business areas.

Notably, the new mechanism provides a pathway for dealing with loss-making enterprises, companies with bad debts, or state capital stakes that are difficult to transfer.

Diversifying capital sale methods, including lot-based auctions, sales bundled with receivables, share swaps and direct negotiations, could help revive deals that have remained stalled for years.

As of December 31, 2025, many major listed companies still had high state ownership ratios, including ACV at 95.4 per cent, GAS at 95.8 per cent, GVR at 96.8 per cent, BSR at 92.1 per cent, MVN at 99.5 per cent, POW at 79.9 per cent, VEA at 88.5 per cent, HVN at 86.4 per cent, BCM at 95.4 per cent, BID at 79.6 per cent and VCB at 74.8 per cent.

According to Nguyen The Minh, head of Investment Banking at An Binh Securities (ABS), the high level of state ownership creates considerable room for divestment in the years ahead.

“If implemented at eligible enterprises, reducing state ownership could bring a large volume of shares to the market, improve free-float ratios and enhance liquidity. ABS believes that the gap between actual ownership ratios, which exceed 90 per cent at many enterprises, and the new legal thresholds could create considerable room to unlock capital,” Minh said.

However, a high level of state ownership does not necessarily mean that a stock will benefit; the decisive factors are whether the enterprise is encompassed in a specific restructuring plan, and how the process is implemented.

For investors, divestment expectations often have a rapid impact on stock prices, but identifying long-term opportunities requires a deeper assessment of corporate quality.

“Key criteria include ROE, ROA and capital efficiency. As the management of state capital shifts strongly towards financial efficiency, enterprises capable of generating strong returns on the capital entrusted to them will have a clearer advantage,” said Buu from BSC.

VIR