Market likely to trade in a narrow range, waiting for Q2 earning reports

Market likely to trade in a narrow range, waiting for Q2 earning reports

Trading money is waiting for a strong enough catalyst from either Q2 business results or positive macroeconomic signals to set the tone for the second half of the year.

Traders work in a trading office of a securities firm. — VNA/VNS Photo

The stock market extended its negative tone last week, prolonging the cautious mood that started in late June. 

Last week, the VN‑Index on the Hochiminh Stock Exchange (HoSE) fell 1.81 per cent from the previous session to 1,828.34 points, slipping below resistance around 1,850. 

The VN30‑Index, tracking the 30 biggest stocks on HoSE, also dropped 1.58 per cent to 1,970.82 points, leaving it well below the psychological 2,000 level.

The price movement mirrored a defensive investor psychology in the absence of sufficiently strong supportive information capable of creating clear market momentum, while liquidity has yet to return decisively.

The most striking feature of the week was not only the decline in the index but also the wearing down of liquidity.

The average trading value across the market dropped to roughly the lowest level since the beginning of 2026, hovering around just above and below VNĐ17 trillion (US$647.2 million) per session.

The figure remains far below the high-turnover period late in 2025, when trading value often exceeded VNĐ30–40 trillion per session.

Liquidity weakness suggests that large investors continue to observe rather than accept risk, particularly because the market has not yet established a clear trend.

Commenting on the flow of funds, Hoàng Xuân Chiến, director of Business Development at the Investment Advisory Division of VPS, said that cash is still cautious, noting that institutional investors have not made strong moves to disburse.

He added that foreign investors remain net sellers in multiple consecutive sessions, which has further weighed on market dynamics.

Foreign investors net sold a total of nearly VNĐ2.5 trillion across the whole market last week. On HoSE alone, the net sell value reached over VNĐ2.3 trillion.

In a half-year strategy view, BIDV Securities (BSC) said that the market’s fundamental backdrop remains positive, even though index performance has been heavily influenced by a subset of large caps in the Vingroup ecosystem.

BSC noted that if the effects of Vingroup (VIC) and Vinhomes (VHM) are removed, the VN‑Index would be roughly equivalent to 1,742 points, which is about 7 per cent lower than the level at the start of the year. 

This is cited as evidence that 'a green on the outside, red on the core' picture continues to appear, where most stocks have not recovered in proportion to the index level.

On the corporate side, more encouraging profit signals. Seven out of 19 industry groups recorded growth in core profit, while nine out of 19 groups improved the quality of earnings.

BSC also raised its profit outlook for nearly 80 companies in its coverage universe. It upgraded the 2026 profit forecast to around VNĐ525.1 trillion, up 3.7 per cent from the estimate made in March and up nearly 22 per cent compared with the previous year. 

The main drivers come from the real estate sector, especially VHM, along with the oil and gas group, led by representative BSR.

When excluding the impact of VIC and VHM, the report said the VN‑Index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently around 12 times, roughly 15 per cent below the historical median of 14.2 times, a range that BSC described as attractive for medium- to long-term investors.

However, BSC also indicated that low valuation alone has not been enough to draw money back yet, citing that banking credit supply remains under pressure and the overall credit level is still tight.

This week, investors are likely to shift attention to the upcoming second-quarter earnings reporting season of listed companies. This is expected to become the most important catalyst capable of deepening stock differentiation after a period in which the market has been driven mainly by sentiment rather than fundamentals.

Kirin Securities advised that investors should not rush to buy the dip immediately but instead wait for the VN‑Index to test successfully a support area around 1,810 before considering new allocation.

With liquidity yet to improve and defensive sentiment still dominant, the market is likely to continue trading in a narrow range. 

Trading money is waiting for a strong enough catalyst from either Q2 business results or positive macro-economic signals to set the tone for the second half of the year. 

Bizhub