Market awaits new catalysts this week

Market awaits new catalysts this week

Experts expect the VN-Index could retest the 1,760-point level before returning to a more positive trajectory.

An investor conducts a transaction at a securities firm office. Photo courtesy of SHS

The stock market extended its correction for a third consecutive week as weak liquidity and persistent foreign selling continued to weigh on investor sentiment, although some analysts believe upcoming domestic and international developments could become important catalysts for the market.

On the Hochiminh Stock Exchange (HoSE), the VN-Index closed last week at 1,838.9 points, down 1.32 per cent compared to the previous week.

In contrast, the HNX-Index on the Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX) finished the week at 293.79 points, up 9.82 per cent from the week before.

Trading activity remained subdued throughout the week. The market even recorded its lowest daily trading value in more than a year during the June 5 session.

Total trading value on HoSE reached VNĐ91 trillion (US$3.5 billion), down 10.78 per cent compared with the previous week. On HNX, weekly trading value amounted to VNĐ4.46 trillion, also declining 10.77 per cent.

According to analysts at Saigon-Hanoi Securities (SHS), liquidity increased when the benchmark index approached the support zone around 1,800 points. However, the recovery seen in the latter half of the week was accompanied by modest trading activity.

SHS noted that trading volume fell 15.8 per cent compared with the previous week, reflecting weakening cash flows.

The brokerage said investor sentiment remained fragile, as profit opportunities were limited and many sectors continued to undergo prolonged correction and accumulation phases.

Despite the late-week rebound, analysts generally maintained a cautious outlook for the coming trading sessions.

Lê Đỗ Tuấn Minh, an expert from Vietnam Construction Securities (CSI), said the two consecutive gains at the end of the week were insufficient to reverse the previous correction trend, especially as liquidity remained exceptionally low.

He pointed out that Friday's matched trading volume was the lowest recorded since the beginning of 2026 and stood 33.4 per cent below the 20-session average.

CSI projected a cautious scenario in which the VN-Index could retest the 1,760-point level before returning to a more positive trajectory.

Pinetree, meanwhile, adopted a less pessimistic view, expecting the market to continue consolidating and gradually moving higher despite lingering doubts.

However, Nguyễn Tấn Phong, an analyst at Pinetree Securities, warned that the short-term bottom had been established on the basis of weak liquidity and support from only a handful of large-cap stocks, limiting the reliability of the recovery signal.

Market participants are expected to closely monitor several major international developments next week.

Among the key issues is the progress of negotiations between the US and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz, which has been influencing oil prices and global inflation expectations.

Investors are also watching the European Central Bank's policy meeting amid renewed inflation pressures in the eurozone and expectations of a possible 25 basis point interest rate increase.

In the US, attention will focus on May consumer price index and producer price index data ahead of the Federal Reserve's June meeting.

Current market expectations suggest US inflation could rise to 4.2 per cent, the highest level since April 2023, potentially affecting global interest rate expectations.

Domestically, investors are turning their attention to upcoming reports from MSCI.

Under the latest schedule, MSCI will publish its market accessibility review on June 19 and release the results of its annual market classification review on June 24.

Although an immediate upgrade for Việt Nam is considered unlikely, investors are hoping the market could be placed on MSCI's watch list for future promotion.

Market participants view such a development as an important stepping stone toward Việt Nam’s long-term goal of being upgraded to emerging market status and as a potential catalyst for the stock market in June.  

Bizhub