VN-Index faces resistance after holiday rally, volatility expected to persist

VN-Index faces resistance after holiday rally, volatility expected to persist

The benchmark index closed April on a strong note, gaining nearly 180 points, or 10.72 per cent, from around 1,675 to above 1,854 points.

Investors watch the market movements at a trading office of a securities firm in Hà Nội. — VNA/VNS Photo

The stock market is entering the post-holiday trading period with heightened attention on both external and internal drivers, as the VN-Index approaches its previous peak near the psychological threshold of 1,900 points amid lingering geopolitical uncertainties and uneven liquidity.

The benchmark index closed April on a strong note, gaining nearly 180 points, or 10.72 per cent, from around 1,675 to above 1,854 points. 

The rally was largely driven by heavyweight stocks, particularly the Vingroup-linked pair Vingroup (VIC) and Vinhomes (VHM), while investor sentiment was further supported by confirmation from FTSE Russell that Việt Nam had passed its latest review and is set for an upgrade in September.

Despite the upward momentum, market participants remain cautious about the sustainability of the trend. Liquidity has yet to show significant improvement, and the index's advance continues to rely on a narrow group of large-cap stocks.

Historical data also suggests mixed performance around the holiday period. The VN-Index has recorded seven weekly gains and four declines in the week following the April 30-May 1 holiday since 2015.

The strongest post-holiday increase occurred in 2020 at nearly 6 per cent, while the sharpest decline was in 2022, when the index dropped 2.73 per cent.

Looking ahead, Bao Viet Securities (BVSC) noted that the VN-Index is continuing to encounter resistance around the 1,890-1,900 range, corresponding to its previous peak.

"The VN-Index continues to face difficulties at the resistance zone around the old peak of 1,890-1,900 points," the firm said.

"The market will likely fluctuate within this range in the coming sessions, with intraday volatility."

BVSC added that index movements are expected to remain dominated by large-cap stocks. While short-term correction pressure may emerge after the recent rally, rotation among blue-chip names could help sustain the index at elevated levels. 

Meanwhile, other sectors are likely to experience strong divergence as the market enters the peak period of corporate disclosures during the annual general meeting season.

Market volatility has also been highlighted by BIDV Securities, which pointed to a lack of stability in recent sessions.

"The VN-Index dropped more than 21 points to close at 1,854.1, mainly due to declines in Vingroup-related stocks. Although the broader market showed improved breadth with more advancing stocks and nine out of 18 sectors gaining, trading remains unstable with wide fluctuations," BSC said, adding that foreign investors were net sellers on the Hochiminh Stock Exchange (HoSE) and UPCOM, but net buyers on the Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX).

"Market trading is still unstable with large volatility. Investors should maintain a cautious stance."

Similarly, Saigon - Hanoi Securities (SHS) warned that after five consecutive weeks of gains, the VN-Index is facing the risk of forming a short-term peak.

"The short-term trend of the VN-Index remains upward above the support zone around 1,820 points," SHS said.

"However, the index is under selling pressure as it approaches the 1,890-1,900 range, which marked the peak in late February 2026 before the sharp decline triggered by Middle East tensions."

The firm said that recent movements have been heavily influenced by Vingroup stocks, which are now experiencing selling pressure after a rapid price increase. 

"After five consecutive weeks of gains from the 1,600 level, the VN-Index faces the risk of forming a short-term top and may correct toward support around 1,820 points," it added.

From a broader perspective, SHS said the market has just completed a phase of digesting corporate earnings and business plans disclosed during annual shareholder meetings. 

Moving into May, macroeconomic data for April will become a key focus, particularly in assessing inflation and the economic impact of rising oil prices linked to geopolitical tensions. 

Bizhub