New real estate cycle to offer true value

New real estate cycle to offer true value

After a period of consolidation, Vietnam’s real estate market is entering a new cycle in which legal transparency, cash flow, operational capability, and asset value will become decisive factors, according to Tran Diem My, vice chairwoman of the board at Five Star Group.

Tran Diem My, vice chairwoman of the Board of Directors of Five Star Group, at the seminar

She made the remarks at the seminar “Real Estate Market 2026: Weathering Headwinds, Embracing a New Cycle,” organised by Vietnam Investment Review on May 12.

According to Five Star Group, the 2026-2030 cycle will no longer be a race of companies that “talk better,” but rather of developers who do more genuinely, keep longer-term commitments, and build lasting trust with customers.

In the previous period, many projects were strongly promoted, creating a big impact and attracting high expectations of price increases. However, as the market slows down, cash flow becomes more cautious, buyers become more discerning, and the criteria of interest changes significantly.

“Customers now no longer just look at the level of media coverage or market effects, but are more interested in a project's legal aspects, the developer's execution capacity, operational capabilities, and long-term asset value,” My said.

According to the Five Star Group leader, the Vietnamese real estate market has gone through a strong purification phase, and this is a necessary process to restructure the market towards greater sustainability.

“The market cannot continue to operate with high leverage, selling based on expectations of price increases or developing projects when the legal framework is incomplete,” My said.

Data from the Ministry of Construction shows that many real estate projects are currently facing difficulties or stagnation, mostly related to legal obstacles, land procedures, and financial obligations. These obstacles come from low-down projects, and "stuck" cash flow, land resources, and market confidence.

“The new cycle will be more demanding, but also fairer. Opportunities will remain, but they will no longer be shared equally across the market. If there is one decisive factor in this new cycle, it is legal compliance. Compliance cannot lag business – it must come first,” My said.

“We believe developers must shift their mindset towards embedding legal compliance from the earliest stages of project development, from land acquisition and planning to financial obligations, construction permits, sales, handover, and title deed issuance. Legal compliance is not merely a condition for sales. It is a passport to cash flow, the foundation of trust, and a true test of a developer’s capabilities,” she added.

According to the group, each project should have a dedicated financial model clearly outlining capital requirements, recovery timelines, break-even points, and contingency plans in the event of slow market absorption. Projects should also be phased in line with legal progress and actual market demand to avoid overstretching resources.

"Buyers have better information, compare more carefully, and are more deeply interested in legal aspects, ownership costs, operation capabilities and long-term value," My said.

VIR