Inflation forecast to stay under control in 2026 despite lingering risks

Inflation forecast to stay under control in 2026 despite lingering risks

Under the National Assembly’s Resolution 244/2025/QH15, Việt Nam has set a target to keep the consumer price index (CPI) at below 4.5 per cent this year to maintain macroeconomic stability while creating room for economic growth.

Consumers shop at a supermarket in Ninh Bình Province. Inflation is expected to remain under control in 2026. — VNA/VNS Photo Nguyễn Chinh

Inflation is expected to remain under control in 2026, but economists warn that risks from global volatility, rising domestic demand and lagging policy effects could still put pressure on prices.

Under the National Assembly’s Resolution 244/2025/QH15, Việt Nam has set a target to keep the consumer price index (CPI) at below 4.5 per cent this year to maintain macroeconomic stability while creating room for economic growth.

According to Director of the National Statistics Office Nguyễn Thị Hương, inflationary pressure in 2026 is not expected to be high, but risks still remain.

She said that unpredictable developments in global energy, fuel and commodity prices coupled with high international logistics and transport costs could continue to weigh on production costs and product prices.

Geo-political tensions, natural disasters and climate change could also disrupt supply chains, particularly for food and essential goods, while accelerating consumption, production and public investment would boost aggregate demand, which could potentially lift prices, Hương said.

“Price management needs to remain proactive and cautious to ensure supply-demand balance and control inflation to safeguard macro-economic stability,” she added.

Former NSO Director Nguyễn Bích Lâm said that inflation in 2026 would also be affected by the lagging effects of major price adjustments in 2024-25.

Specifically, electricity prices were raised twice during this period, pushing up production and living costs and likely continuing to weigh on CPI in the quarters ahead.

Rising health care and education fees are also adding pressure to public service prices, he said.

In addition, a strong rebound in tourism, entertainment and catering services could push service prices higher during peak periods.

Globally, prices of metals, construction materials and industrial inputs remain high amid geo-political uncertainty and supply chain disruptions.

According to Nguyễn Đào Tùng, director of the Academy of Finance, the Government’s 10 per cent GDP growth target for 2026 would require a sharp increase in aggregate demand across consumption, investment and exports, placing significant pressure on both monetary and fiscal policy.

He said balancing historically high growth targets with macro-economic stability would be challenging, especially amid an uncertain global economic outlook for 2026, risks of trade tensions, slower growth in major economies and volatile financial and currency markets.

Acting Deputy Director of the Institute of Economics and Finance Nguyễn Đức Độ forecast monthly CPI growth at around 0.3 per cent, with average inflation in 2026 hovering around 3.5 per cent, plus or minus 0.5 percentage points.

In 2025, Việt Nam recorded GDP growth of over 8 per cent while keeping inflation at 3.3 per cent, official data shows. Last year was the 11th consecutive year Việt Nam has kept inflation below 4 per cent.

Bizhub