Vietnam to lead trade growth in ASEAN

Vietnam to lead trade growth in ASEAN

Despite tariff headwinds, Vietnam remains among ASEAN’s top export growth performers, supporting expectations of robust gains in employment and wages.

According to HSBC's ASEAN Perspectives 2026 report on January 26, although there are fears over tariffs while the frontloading of export demand is set to pull back, ASEAN’s trade engines will endure. In fact, despite all the noise over tariffs, the region’s exports outperformed in 2025, it said.

The finer details suggest that this outperformance will likely be sustained, with ASEAN seeing its global market share in exports jump from approximately 7.4 per cent in 2023 to approximately 9.4 per cent by 2025, putting a floor under how much any easing in demand will weigh on the region.

This increase was neither driven by any boom in exports to the usual destinations like the US, China, or even intra-ASEAN, but by a broad-based increase in exports to the rest of the world. With the region seen as a "tariff haven" and a supplier of hardware to the AI boom, ASEAN has what it takes to endure any trade challenges in 2026 and still attract the overseas funding it needs to keep on going.

Against the backdrop, thanks to their domestic strengths and supportive policies, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore are emerging as leading engines of trade growth in the region. Apart from their tenacious – but prudent – fiscal policy, their gains in trade have translated into gains in wages and jobs.

In Vietnam, the spillover effects of trade are clearly evident in the employment and consumer markets. With higher wages, retail sales in Vietnam grew 9.6 per cent on-year until November 2025. Confidence in the economy also persists, with credit growth in late 2025 still on the rise.

The report also pointed out that Vietnam is among the economies with the most impressive fiscal strength in the region, along with Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore.

With the public debt-to-GDP ratios low, Vietnam is pumping the fiscal irons in 2026, accruing fiscal deficits that are above their pre-pandemic averages. Vietnam is set to boost its infrastructure spending as it undergoes an expansive reform agenda, with a fiscal deficit-to-GDP target that is slightly above the pre-pandemic levels of approximately 4.1 per cent.

HSBC forecasts that Vietnam is expected to grow in line or above potential in 2026, and will witness robust wage growth, strong credit. and retail sales.

VIR