Securities firms warn of corrections as market at record highs

Securities firms warn of corrections as market at record highs

The market benchmark VN-Index closed the week at 1,867.9 points, marking the highest level ever recorded.

Investors track stocks' movements on a digital board inside the HoSE. — VNA/VNS Photo

The domestic stock market began 2026 with remarkable enthusiasm, as the VN-Index achieved successive historical highs, driven by a strong influx of capital into the oil and banking sectors. 

On the main exchange, the Hochiminh Stock Exchange (HoSE), the VN-Index closed the week at 1,867.9 points, marking the highest level ever recorded. For the week, it surged by 83.41 points. 

Throughout the week, the index experienced four days of gains against one day of decline, reflecting a dominant upward trend from the year's outset. 

Market liquidity improved significantly, with several trading sessions registering transaction values exceeding VNĐ30 trillion (US$1.1 billion). The total trading value for the week reached over VNĐ165.5 trillion, averaging over VNĐ33.1 trillion per session. 

On the HoSE, the average matched liquidity increased to over 1.08 million shares per session, a rise of more than 37 per cent compared to the previous week and nearly 17 per cent above the 20-week average.

In contrast, the HNX-Index on the Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX) did not perform as well, declining by 1.67 points to 247.1, with four days of losses and only one gain during the week. Nevertheless, liquidity on the HNX improved, totalling nearly VNĐ10 trillion.

The market displayed a predominance of green, with 12 out of 21 sectors gaining ground. 

The oil and gas sector emerged as a frontrunner, skyrocketing by 26.44 per cent, driven by geopolitical developments in Venezuela affecting stock performance. 

On the HoSE, stocks like Petrolimex (PLX), PV Gas (GAS), Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical JSC (BSR) and Petro Center Corporation (PMG) all posted strong gains attributable to this sector surge.

The banking sector followed, particularly large State-owned banks. Over the last three days of the week, BIDV (BID), Vietcombank (VCB) and Vietinbank (CTG) attracted considerable demand, consistently ranking among the top gainers in the VN30 basket. 

Analysts anticipate these banks to sustain long-term growth, in line with the spirit of the Politburo's Resolution 79/NQ-TW.

On the flip side, Sacombank (STB) drew attention for diverging from this upward trend after reporting a consolidated profit before tax of only VNĐ7.6 trillion for 2025, amounting to 52 per cent of its target, which reflected a loss in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Foreign trading activity showed positive signs in the first week, with foreign investors pivoting from net selling in the initial days to net buying in the latter three sessions, culminating in a net purchase of about VNĐ630 billion for the week.

Banking stocks were the focal point of this foreign inflow, with MBBank (MBB) and VCB seeing the strongest demand. 

In a newly published strategic report, Viet Dragon Securities Co. (VDSC) projects that 2026 will mark a transition in the market narrative from "expensive on an index basis" to "broadly attractive”, as profit growth returns to its leading role. 

VDSC forecasts the VN-Index could target a range of 1,712-2,032 points over the next 12-14 months.

The financial sector, particularly banking, is expected to maintain its pivotal role with an estimated profit growth rate of 16.4 per cent. The real estate sector is projected to achieve an impressive growth of around 26.1 per cent, driven by legal improvements and a sales recovery cycle. 

Conversely, non-financial sectors may face margin pressure, with more modest profit growth anticipated.

Despite the positive outlook, securities firms warn of short-term volatility risks as the VN-Index approaches high levels, given potential profit-taking pressures, geopolitical uncertainties, and the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts.

As the Vietnamese stock market begins 2026, it finds itself in a rare state of excitement, with both index gains and liquidity surging. 

The capital flow appears to show a clearer trend of dispersion, though sectoral differentiation remains evident.

In the short term, technical adjustments may arise as the VN-Index fluctuates around the 1,800-1,900 points range. 

However, bolstered by State-owned enterprises and major banking stocks, the mid-term upward trend continues to be viewed positively. Investors are advised to maintain appropriate weightings and leverage market fluctuations to optimise their portfolios. 

Bizhub