Retail stocks poised for growth as consumption recovery and policy tailwinds align

Retail stocks poised for growth as consumption recovery and policy tailwinds align

Retail stocks are drawing growing investor interest as recovering consumer demand, supportive tax policies and improving income prospects underpin expectations of strong earnings growth and rising valuations.

According to the National Statistics Office under the Ministry of Finance, Vietnam’s total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenues were an estimated $280 billion in 2025, up 9.2 per cent on-year. Retail sales of goods came to around $212 billion, accounting for 76.1 per cent of the total and up 8 per cent.

The demand for goods and services has increased sharply, particularly during major commemorative events and public holidays. January 2026 coincides with the period when the country prepares for the Lunar New Year, pushing up consumer spending and providing a positive boost for retail businesses.

Along with this, Digiworld Corporation announced preliminary business results for 2025 with record figures, posting estimated revenue of equivalent to about $1.07 billion, up 21.2 per cent from 2024 and exceeding its annual plan by 5 per cent. The results reflect a clear recovery in demand for technology products.

Phu Hung Securities noted that Digiworld’s main growth drivers come from its core segments such as laptops and tablets, benefiting from the trend of upgrading devices integrated with AI, while mobile phones and office equipment have also recorded growth.

Digiworld is expected to maintain positive medium-term growth momentum, supported by device upgrade trends, investment in technology infrastructure for digital transformation and AI adoption, rapid urbanisation, and consumers’ increasing technological sophistication.

Meanwhile, Mobile World Investment Corporation (MWG) is forecast to record profit growth in 2025 and 2026, driven by stronger-than-expected performance in ICT, effective management, expansion of the Bach Hoa Xanh grocery chain, and new tax policies that favour modern retail models.

VNDirect Securities projects MWG’s profit in 2025 at approximately $268 million, up 80 per cent compared to 2024. The electronics and home appliances segment is expected to benefit from a gradual recovery in replacement needs as consumer confidence improves, and financial conditions allegedly become more favourable.

The recovery of the real estate market is also supporting demand for household electronics and consumer appliances, meanwhile the Bach Hoa Xanh chain is projected to remain the key growth driver thanks to improved operational efficiency, optimised product assortments and cost control, with revenue in 2026 expected to increase by around 22 per cent on-year.

Overall, VNDirect forecasts MWG’s 2026 revenue at about $7.01 billion, and pre-tax profit equivalent to roughly $396 million.

An important policy-driven catalyst for modern retailers such as MWG is stricter tax compliance enforcement. Mandatory e-invoicing and tighter management of household businesses and informal retail channels are likely to curb unfair competition from traditional trade, enabling modern retailers to gain market share and boost revenue and profit growth.

FPT Digital Retail, the retail arm of tech giant FPT Corporation, has recorded a strong rebound as the FPT Shop chain recovered markedly thanks to growth in electronics, laptops and mobile phones during the back-to-school season, while the Long Chau pharmacy chain continues to be the main growth engine with rapid expansion.

Long Chau is currently the largest modern pharmacy chain in Vietnam in terms of revenue and number of stores, and is among the few in the sector that have already reported profits.

Hanoi-based National Securities forecasts that in 2025, FPT Retail’s consolidated revenue will come to around $2.08 billion, up 29 per cent on-year.

In the essential consumer segment, major brands such as Masan Group and Vinamilk are expected to maintain their leading positions thanks to extensive distribution networks, strong brand recognition and continuous product innovation.

KB Vietnam Securities believes that economic growth and consumption in 2026 will be driven by high economic growth targets and personal income tax relief policies, opening up significant growth potential for domestic consumer companies. Masan Group and Vinamilk are then assessed to have solid positions and positive prospects in 2026.

Nguyen The Minh, head of Research and Development at Yuanta Vietnam Securities, said retail is among the most favoured stock groups in 2026, supported by multiple tailwinds including new tax policies, economic growth and improving household incomes, which together are stimulating consumption.

“With positive corporate growth prospects and strong long-term potential, retail stocks are considered attractive to investors, especially as valuations may improve when Vietnam’s stock market is upgraded to emerging market status, hopefully from September,” Minh noted.

VIR