Market awaits the 14th National Party Congress

Market awaits the 14th National Party Congress

The index is likely to stabilise during the early part of this week in anticipation of the Congress, with potential volatility anticipated a week later depending on the new policies announced.

Investors at a first trading session of a ticker symbol on the HoSE. — VNA/VNS Photo

Việt Nam's stock market has entered a phase of notable fluctuations following its recent ascent to a historic peak, driven by rising profit-taking pressures.

Despite this volatility, the adjustments are primarily technical, as market liquidity remains high and key support stocks – particularly in the banking sector — continue to uphold the indices.

Last week the VN-Index experienced a tug-of-war pattern, alternating between gains and losses. Increased selling pressure on several different days led to temporary declines in the benchmark index, yet the overall market maintained a stable posture.

The VN-Index, which represents the Hochiminh Stock Exchange (HoSE), closed the week at 1,879.13 points, while the HNX-Index on the Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX) last traded at 252.28 points. 

For the week, the former gained slightly by 11.23 points and the latter increased by 5.18 after three consecutive weeks of decline.

Last week the VN-Index also set a new historic peak, briefly surpassing 1,918 points on January 14. However, significant sell-offs in Vin stocks overshadowed the broader market's upward movement, leading to weakness in the subsequent sessions. 

It was only on the final trading day that the market regained its footing, bolstered by a recovery in Vin-family shares, with Vingroup (VIC) contributing nearly 12 points to the index's rise. 

In contrast, stocks like PV Gas (GAS), Vietnam Rubber Group (GVR), HDBank (HDB) and Masan Consumer Corporation (MCH) exerted considerable downward pressure, collectively detracting over five points.

Despite the limited point increase, the VN-Index recorded its second consecutive week of liquidity growth, with matching volumes rising by 44.8 per cent compared to the 20-week average. 

Total liquidity on the HoSE reached 1.283 billion shares, an 18.51 per cent increase week-on-week, with a trading value of over VNĐ41.4 trillion (US$1.6 billion), up 24.91 per cent.

The market skewed predominantly towards gains across sectors, with 20 out of 21 industries posting increases. The technology and telecommunications sector emerged as a standout, climbing by 27.25 per cent, followed by insurance at 11.03 per cent and industrial real estate at 8.5 per cent. Conversely, the real estate sector declined by 8.25 per cent, the only sector to record a loss for the week.

Foreign investors were net sellers for the week, offloading more than VNĐ1.8 trillion worth of shares. 

Analysts suggest that the VN-Index is entering a sensitive phase ahead of the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party, which begins on January 19. 

In the short term, the index is likely to stabilise during the early part of this week in anticipation of the congress, with potential volatility anticipated a week later depending on the new policies announced.

Historically, the VN-Index tends to experience strong growth following the conclusion of such congresses. The forthcoming fourth quarter earnings reports from various companies are also expected to significantly influence market trends in the near term.

From a technical standpoint, BETA Securities Corporation noted that the increased selling pressure towards the end of the week suggests a need for a correction to absorb supply after a rapid increase. 

However, these adjustments are viewed as technical in nature, aimed at balancing supply and demand, with the overall trend remaining stable.

Vietnam Construction Securities recommended that investors hold their current portfolios, waiting for the VN-Index to oscillate around the support level of 1,860-1,880 points before considering further purchases. The focus should be on partial investments and avoiding chasing after prices during technical rebounds. 

Bizhub