From easy money to selective bets: investment prospects for Vietnam in 2026

From easy money to selective bets: investment prospects for Vietnam in 2026

After a year of broad-based asset rallies, 2026 is set to test investors with rising interest rates, shifting growth drivers, and the need for more selective, risk-aware investment strategies.

The year 2025 was an unusual one for investors, as nearly all asset classes posted strong gains.

Gold prices surged by nearly 90 per cent, real estate set new price records, while the stock market crossed the 1,800-point mark for the first time.

The least attractive investment channel in 2025 was arguably bank deposits. However, heading into 2026, the winds may well change direction.

Bank deposits are considered one of the attractive investment options in 2026

Commenting on the global economic outlook for 2026, Nguyen Minh Tuan, CEO of AFA Capital and co-founder of Vietnam Wealth Advisors, said that amidst increasingly complex global economic fluctuations and numerous unpredictable variables, investors should adopt a more defensive stance when building their 2026 portfolios, prioritising channels such as bank deposits and gold.

“Six-month deposit rates on the market have now risen to 8.5-8.6 per cent per year, which is quite attractive for savers. When interest rates rise, the stock market and real estate tend to face disadvantages,” Tuan opined.

These remarks were delivered at an investment outlook for 2026 event held in Hanoi in late December.

Experts assume that one of the key variables that could affect investment channelsin 2026 is interest rate movement.

Over the past more than two months, interest rates have increased sharply as credit growth has far outpaced deposit mobilisation, causing banking system liquidity to become strained at certain times.

Experts believe that interest rates have already bottomed out and will not rise sharply, but are likely to continue edging higher throughout 2026.

"Interest rates in 2026 will continue to inch up to ensure liquidity in the banking system. Investors should pay attention to companies with solid growth that are not overly dependent on debt; highly speculative stocks or those heavily relying on leverage will carry significant risks," said Thai Quang Trung, head of Research at fund management major VinaCapital.

"We have already gone through a period of cheap money, and that room has been fully used up. In 2026, we will enter a new phase, and interest rates will be the most notable issue," said Le Chi Phuc, CEO of SGI Capital Investment Fund Management JSC.

As for gold, experts believe there are currently no factors that would support a downward reversal in 2026.

Many international institutions forecast that gold prices, after ending 2025 around $4,500 per ounce, could rise to $5,000-5,400 per ounce in 2026.

However, after an excessively hot rally, gold is no longer suitable for short-term trading strategies.

In the Vietnamese market, besides the risk of a global price reversal, short-term holders also face the risk of narrowing price spreads if the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) licenses gold imports in 2026.

"Gold has now reached $4,500 per ounce, the highest level in history. Prices may continue to rise, but they could also fall. Therefore, if buying gold, investors should only use their own cash and allocate a small proportion," remarked Phan Dung Khanh, Investment Advisory director at Maybank Investment Bank.

Although rising interest rates are a negative factor for real estate, Vietnam is entering a phase of high growth, with infrastructure development, real estate, and public investment serving as key growth drivers.

Many experts believe that real estate investment in the forrhcoming period requires a longer-term perspective, especially as interest rates edge higher, property prices remain excessively high, and supply increases sharply.

According to Pham Thi Mien, Deputy director of Vietnam Real Estate Market Research and Evaluation Institute, real estate supply in 2025 reached 145,000 products, significantly higher than during the 2021-2024 period.

However, the market remains imbalanced, as supply is concentrated mainly in the high-end and luxury segments, while affordable housing remains in short supply.

Mien also warns that investors should closely observe actual project implementation rather than investing based on planning rumors.

"Infrastructure development is always a launchpad for sustainable real estate growth, but the market is also very sensitive to planning information. Often, by the time information is released, prices have already risen, and further upside depends heavily on actual implementation progress," she said.

The year 2025 was also a landmark year for Vietnam's stock market, as the VN-Index surpassed 1,800 points for the first time.

However, this rally was driven mainly by just five to six large-cap stocks, which contributed up to 75 per cent of the market's overall gains. In 2026, experts expect wider-based participation.

Despite rising interest rates, high growth targets are expected to continue supporting stock market momentum. Nguyen Minh Tuan from AFA Capital remains confident that from 2026-2030, Vietnam's stock market will offer many opportunities, albeit accompanied by remarkable challenges.

Meanwhile, Tran Thang Long, head of research at BIDV Securities, noted that growth momentum stems not only from the double-digit growth targets, but also from the recovery of corporate performance.

By the end of the third quarter of 2025, profits of listed companies had risen by 30 per cent, broadly in line with the stock market's gain since the beginning of the year. He expects this recovery trend to continue into 2026.

Experts also caution that stocks which posted strong gains in 2025 may not necessarily continue to deliver profits in 2026.

Investors are advised to pay attention to overlooked sectors such as retail, consumer goods, and life insurance, as well as export-oriented companies that are able to open up new markets or revive their presence in the US market.

VIR