Macro-economic stability underpins growth in the years ahead

Macro-economic stability underpins growth in the years ahead

As global economic conditions remain volatile, Việt Nam faces the dual task of maintaining macroeconomic stability while creating enough space for high and sustainable growth in 2026 and the years ahead.

The Vietnam Economic Forum 2025 was held in HCM City on December 31. — Photo nld.com.vn

This message was highlighted at the fourth Vietnam Economic Forum 2025, held in HCM City on December 31 under the theme “Macro-economic stability and institutional implementation – foundations for growth in 2026”, organised by Người Lao Động (The Labourers) newspaper.

According to Nguyễn Đức Khương, chairman of the Association of Vietnamese Scientists and Experts Worldwide (AVSE Global), Việt Nam is currently regarded as one of Asia’s most dynamic economies, with strong growth momentum and deepening global integration. 

The International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook, released in October 2025, places Việt Nam among the world’s three fastest-growing economies. 

In the first 11 months of 2025, the country attracted more than US$33 billion in foreign direct investment, the highest level in five years.

Khương stressed that macro-economic stability remains the most important factor in strengthening market confidence, stimulating consumption and laying the groundwork for long-term growth.

Despite these positive signals, economist Cấn Văn Lực warned that Việt Nam continues to face significant risks amid an increasingly uncertain global environment. 

Geopolitical tensions, trade and technology fragmentation, rising protectionism, along with cybersecurity and climate challenges, are placing pressure on exports, investment inflows and macro-economic stability.

Domestically, traditional growth drivers have recovered more slowly than expected. Private investment and consumer spending have yet to return to pre-pandemic levels, while public investment disbursement remains uneven. 

Businesses are still burdened by high logistics costs and stricter requirements related to green transition and digital transformation. 

Trần Đình Thiên, a member of the Prime Minister’s Policy Advisory Council, said the most critical bottleneck lies in the domestic private sector. 

Although credit growth has increased, capital has not flowed effectively into production, reflecting weak absorption capacity and limited value added retained within the economy. 

He cautioned that high growth without improvements in productivity, internal capacity and participation in value chains could pose serious medium- and long-term risks.

According to Bạch Khánh Nhựt, deputy chairman of the Việt Nam Cashew Association, the cashew sector has recorded double-digit export growth for several consecutive years, yet still relies on imported raw materials for about 90 per cent of its inputs, leading to shrinking value added.

In this context, experts agreed that the priority is not only to sustain growth but also to improve its quality and resilience by strengthening internal capacity.

Expert Trần Du Lịch said the debate between stability and growth should not be framed as a binary choice, as Việt Nam can pursue both if policies are implemented flexibly, consistently and with clear priorities.

He emphasised the need for close coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to unblock capital flows, remove bottlenecks and steer credit towards sectors that generate real value.

Lực added that achieving growth of around 10 per cent in 2026 and beyond would require fiscal policy to play a leading role, with monetary policy providing support. 

Key priorities include boosting domestic investment and consumption, sustaining traditional export markets and promoting new growth drivers such as the digital, green and circular economies.

Nguyễn Ngọc Hòa, chairman of the HCM City Business Association, said stronger support is needed to enhance the role of domestic enterprises in growth and exports. 

Measures should focus on reducing logistics costs, accelerating infrastructure development and advancing institutional reforms that grant greater autonomy while strengthening accountability.

Experts said that only by maintaining macro-economic stability, ensuring efficient capital allocation and fostering a stronger domestic business sector, can Việt Nam move closer to its goal of high, sustainable growth. 

Bizhub