Việt Nam bets big on double-digit economic growth in 2026

Việt Nam bets big on double-digit economic growth in 2026

A series of socio-economic targets for 2026 has been approved by the National Assembly, including GDP growth of at least 10%; GDP per capita of US$5,400–5,500, consumer price index hike of around 4.5 per cent, and labour productivity gains of about 8.5 per cent.

With 2025 on track for around 8 per cent growth, Việt Nam has solid momentum heading into the new year. — VNA/VNS Photo

Việt Nam is aiming for double-digit economic growth in 2026, a bold move that signals the Government's unwavering commitment to tapping new drivers while making the most of its existing resources.

A series of socio-economic targets for 2026 has been approved by the National Assembly, including GDP growth of at least 10 per cent; GDP per capita of US$5,400–5,500, consumer price index hike of around 4.5 per cent, and labour productivity gains of about 8.5 per cent.

These present considerable hurdles, yet the Government remains committed. The Ministry of Finance is putting the finishing touches on draft Resolution 01, which lays out an initial roadmap to hit these numbers. Breakdowns show agro-forestry-fisheries should grow about 4 per cent, while industry and construction power ahead with nearly 12 per cent.

Total social investment is projected at nearly VNĐ4.93 quadrillion ($189 billion), up 18.7 per cent from the prior year and equivalent to 33-33.7 per cent of GDP. Exports are expected to rise about 8 per cent, delivering a trade surplus of around $28 billion, while retail sales of goods and services could climb 11 per cent, with a stretch target of 12 per cent.

It's not just the Government setting the pace, localities are crafting their own gross regional domestic product (GRDP) plans. Powerhouses like Hà Nội, HCM City, Hải Phòng, Quảng Ninh, Đà Nẵng, and Đồng Nai are all chasing double-digit gains.

Even in less affluent localities, ambition runs high. Sơn La, Gia Lai, Đắk Lắk, Vĩnh Long, Đồng Tháp, and Cà Mau provinces aren't pursuing double digits but still targeting 8 per cent or better GRDP growth.

Economic momentum builds up

With 2025 on track for around 8 per cent growth, Việt Nam has solid momentum heading into the new year.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) just boosted its forecasts for the region in its latest report, crediting resilient export demand even amid US tariff concerns. Việt Nam scored the biggest upward revision of any member economy, as the ADB observed that the actual impact of tariffs had been less severe than anticipated.

While the ADB flags risks stemming from US trade policies, Việt Nam's proactive reforms have drawn praise. Looking ahead, multiple growth accelerators are lining up for 2026: the official opening of the International Financial Centre, plus the simultaneous launch and ground-breaking of 234 major national projects carrying over VNĐ3.4 quadrillion in total investment.

To drive growth, Deputy Minister of Finance Đỗ Thành Trung noted that the National Assembly has outlined 11 key task groups and solutions. The Government instructed relevant agencies to break these down into concrete, actionable plans under the forthcoming Resolution 01.

Core focuses encompass accelerating institutional reforms for greater transparency, consistency and equity in investment and business rules to unlock productive forces and pool resources; turning institutional reform into the “breakthrough of breakthroughs” and a national competitive advantage; continuing to prioritise growth while safeguarding macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation and maintaining major economic balances; advancing a new growth model and economic restructuring, and ensuring timely delivery of strategic and critical infrastructure projects. 

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