Steel nerves as Việt Nam faces trade remedy risks

Steel nerves as Việt Nam faces trade remedy risks

Across markets, TRAV urges exporters to: monitor pricing and margins; maintain robust documentation on input origin and production; and avoid reliance on restricted third-country inputs.

Vietnamese steel exporters are being urged to tread carefully after the Trade Remedies Authority of Vietnam (TRAV) placed several product categories on a watchlist for possible anti-dumping, anti-subsidy or anti-circumvention action in key markets, including the European Union, Australia, Mexico, the United States and Thailand.

TRAV said the alert follows sharp growth in shipments of certain lines where destination markets already impose trade-remedy measures on the same or 'like' goods from third countries. While Việt Nam’s market shares remain moderate in some cases, the rapid pace of expansion 'elevates the risk of investigations,' the authority noted.

Cold-rolled flat steel exports to the EU reached US$88.4 million in the first half of 2025, up 21.5 per cent year-on-year and accounting for 9.8 per cent of EU imports. The bloc already levies anti-dumping duties on like products from China and Russia. If Việt Nam’s shipments continue to rise, TRAV warns that an EU anti-dumping initiation is possible.

Tinplate sales to the EU reached $67.7 million, a 61 per cent increase and accounting for a 7.3 per cent import share, in a market where Brussels applies anti-dumping duties on Chinese tinplate. TRAV advises exporters to avoid key Chinese-origin inputs to reduce anti-circumvention exposure.

Exports of iron and steel fasteners totalled $144.8 million, a 47.5 per cent increase that lifted Việt Nam’s share to 8.5 per cent of EU imports. The bloc already applies anti-dumping duties on Chinese fasteners, and TRAV said a probe is 'possible if momentum holds.'

Organic-coated steel shipments stood at $66.8 million, up 63.7 per cent and equivalent to 8.8 per cent of EU imports. The EU currently imposes both anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties on like products from China.

Meanwhile, Việt Nam's hot-rolled structural sections to Australia surged to $24.1 million in H1 2025, a jump of 409.5 per cent that lifted its share to 24.4 per cent of Australian imports. Canberra already applies anti-dumping measures on such goods from Japan, Korea, Chinese Taipei and Thailand. Given the rapid growth and large share, TRAV flagged a high risk of trade-remedy action and urged exporters to avoid major Chinese-origin inputs.

Hollow structural sections exports reached $9.7 million (+65.3 per cent) and a 7.9 per cent share, making Việt Nam the second-largest supplier. Australia currently has anti-dumping measures on comparable products from China, Chinese Taipei, Malaysia and Korea. A case is possible if growth continues, TRAV said.

Prestressed products (PC strand) to Mexico rose to $24.8 million (+447.1 per cent) in H1 2025, equalling 28.2 per cent of Mexican imports. Mexico imposes anti-dumping duties on like goods from China, Spain and Portugal. TRAV views the risk of an anti-dumping probe as high.

For the United States, prestressed concrete steel wire strand shipments were $15.8 million (+8.2 per cent), accounting for 26.3 per cent of US imports. Washington currently applies anti-dumping and countervailing duties on PC strand from 22 sources, including Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Chinese Taipei, India, China, Japan and Korea. TRAV says a US investigation is a significant risk given three years of fast growth and Việt Nam’s large share, and cautions against using imported inputs that could trigger anti-circumvention inquiries.

Stainless-steel flanges to the US reached $8.9 million (+55.5 per cent) and 8.6 per cent of imports, ranking Việt Nam third behind Italy and India. The US already levies anti-dumping duties on flanges from China and India. TRAV warns of potential anti-dumping or anti-circumvention action and advises avoiding key inputs from those two countries.

Flat cold-rolled stainless steel exports to Thailand were $16.8 million (+66.6 per cent) in H1 2025, an 8.2 per cent share. Bangkok currently imposes anti-dumping duties on like goods from Indonesia and Malaysia. With fast growth and a meaningful share, an initiation by Thai authorities is possible, TRAV said.

Across markets, TRAV urges exporters to monitor pricing and margins, maintain robust documentation on input origin and production and avoid reliance on restricted third-country inputs, especially Chinese-origin materials in categories where the destination already targets China, so as to reduce anti-circumvention risk. The authority’s notice includes HS reference codes for each category to help firms map their exposure.

“Rising volumes are a success story but they also invite scrutiny,” the agency cautioned, adding that early compliance planning can lower legal risk and help preserve market access as Việt Nam’s steel exports expand. 

Bizhub