Market sees mixed pictures this week

Market sees mixed pictures this week

Securities firms predict that the recovery trend may continue, but if liquidity does not improve, correction force could resurge as the VN-Index approaches resistance levels.

A trader works at a securities firm's office in Hà Nội.— Photo vietnamplus.vn

The VN-Index has experienced a notable four-day rally, recovering all the points lost last week, but liquidity remains low and foreign investors continue to sell off shares, leading to a mixed outlook for the stock market this week.

After reaching a short-term peak in early September, the VN-Index faced significant pressure last week, dropping over 40 points to the 1,600 mark. 

However, a surge in buying interest helped the market rebound over the last four trading sessions. 

By the end of the week, the VN-Index on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) was traded at 1,667.26 points, fully regaining its previous losses. The HNX-Index on the Hanoi Stock Exchange closed at 276.51 points.

For the week, the former gained slightly 0.29 points while the latter dropped nearly 1.5 per cent. 

Market breadth tilted towards recovery, with capital flow shifting towards sectors such as construction, building materials, aquaculture, retail and real estate. 

Conversely, technology, securities, industrial zones and chemicals remained under correction pressure. 

Last week, average weekly liquidity plunged to 1.16 billion shares per session, compared to 1.67 billion in August. Foreign investors sold a net of over VNĐ5 trillion (US$193 billion) on the HOSE.

According to Vietnam Construction Securities JSC (CSI), last week was emotionally charged, marked by two sharp declines at the beginning but quickly offset by robust recovery sessions. 

Notably, the session on September 11 demonstrated a persistent buying interest.

In terms of sector performance, real estate rose by 5.22 per cent, steel increased by 4.12 per cent and retail saw a 3.56 per cent gain. 

In contrast, telecommunications, securities and banking experienced the steepest declines. 

Foreign investors continued to sell off shares, with significant pressure on stocks like Hoa Phat Group (HPG), Mobile World Investment Corporation

(MWG) and MBBank (MBB), while Vinamilk (VNM), VPBank (VPB) and Gelex Group (GEX) saw net buying.

Looking ahead, securities firms predict that the recovery trend may continue, with the VN-Index likely targeting the 1,686-point level. 

However, if liquidity does not improve, correction pressures could resurge as the index approaches resistance levels. 

Investors are advised to maintain reasonable weightings in their portfolios, focusing on fundamentally strong stocks and avoiding chasing high prices.

Significantly, the market is poised to receive positive news as Deputy Prime Minister Hồ Đức Phớc signed a decision on September 12 approving the plan to upgrade Việt Nam’s stock market. 

The plan aims for short-term goals to meet criteria for the FTSE Russell to upgrade Việt Nam to secondary emerging market status by 2025 and to sustain this position. 

Long-term goals include fulfilling criteria for MSCI emerging market status and higher-tier emerging market status with FTSE Russell by 2030.

This news is expected to provide additional momentum for attracting foreign capital, supporting the medium- to long-term growth of Việt Nam’s stock market. 

In a global context, optimistic developments on Wall Street are also contributing to investor sentiment, as international capital flows anticipate a potential easing of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. 

Trần Hoàng Sơn, market strategy director at VPBank Securities (VPBankS), expects that investors will soon receive important international updates, particularly from the Fed. 

"It’s not just about whether the Fed will cut rates, but how and how often," he said. 

Bizhub