Market rally sets positive tone for VN-Index outlook into 2026

Market rally sets positive tone for VN-Index outlook into 2026

Vietnam’s stock market is gaining momentum on supportive policies and stronger sentiment. Tran Vinh Quang, CEO of Thien Viet Asset Management, told VIR the trend could last through 2026, but stressed portfolio efficiency over index milestones.

From your perspective, what are the key factors driving the stock market today?

I see four key drivers providing strong support for the stock market. First is the government’s clear orientation towards private-sector development. Looking at the structure of listed companies, most of the largest players now come from the private sector. This is a remarkable shift. Previously, the economy was dominated by state-owned enterprises, but now it's the private sector taking the lead, most visibly through the stock market.

Second, both fiscal and monetary policies are being deployed in parallel, which is quite rare. Typically, fiscal expansion is accompanied by tighter credit policy, or vice versa. Currently, however, both policies are moving in the same direction: public investment disbursement is accelerating, while interest rates remain low with room for further credit growth. This combination creates a strong foundation for the market.

Third, the government has introduced specific, actionable measures rather than just broad slogans. This can be seen in the real estate sector, where various policies, decrees, and proposals have been issued to ease bottlenecks. Similar mechanisms are also being implemented for the stock market and the financial sector in general.

Finally, a critical driver is the government’s strong and consistent engagement. This is not only visible in formality but also in substance, as regulators adopt a more open approach toward emerging trends such as digital assets and green finance, while taking concrete steps to advance Vietnam’s market upgrade commitments. These signals boost long-term investor confidence in the stock market’s development.

How do you view the prospects for upgrading Vietnam’s stock market?

We should not place too much emphasis on the upcoming FTSE Russell reclassification. With ongoing reforms, the upgrade is inevitable – it is simply a matter of timing. If it happens this year, it will be a strong catalyst. If delayed, it will not alter the market’s overall upward trajectory.

What matters is that many foreign investors have already prepared. I am aware of large funds that have opened accounts, waiting for the upgrade to deploy capital. Once that occurs, a clear reversal in foreign capital flows can be expected.

With interest rates at historic lows, which asset classes do you consider most attractive for Vietnamese investors?

There are several channels such as stocks, real estate, gold, and even digital assets. However, I see the stock market as the most accessible and flexible option for a wide range of investors, as it does not require significant upfront capital.

For example, gold investment still relies on physical trading, since no official gold exchange exists yet. Real estate demands large amounts of capital. By contrast, through stocks, investors can gain exposure to real estate growth by purchasing shares of property developers, without directly investing in costly projects.

More importantly, given the combination of expansionary fiscal policy, accelerated public investment, accommodative monetary policy, and low interest rates, the stock market stands out as the most advantageous channel. It is a long-term wealth accumulation tool that helps individuals allocate assets wisely and build a sustainable financial foundation for the future.

Given the recent market rally, what is your outlook for the VN-Index through 2025–2026, and what advice would you give investors?

The overall trend of the stock market is expected to remain positive at least until the end of next year. Nevertheless, investors should place less emphasis on VN-Index milestones and instead focus on portfolio efficiency, as not all stocks move in tandem and gains are often concentrated in specific sectors or leading tickers.

Financials, banking, securities, real estate, and retail are likely to continue attracting capital inflows, but the decisive factor in any uptrend is flexibility. Investors must be ready to make adjustments if their holdings fail to perform. To mitigate risks, retail investors should establish a clear set of rules with defined criteria.

On the buying side, these include profit growth, return on equity, margins, safe leverage, and reasonable valuations. On the selling side, investors should exit when the investment thesis no longer holds, when market trends or capital flows weaken, or when risk–return targets have been achieved.

Equally important is disciplined portfolio management, with limits on position sizes for individual stocks and the portfolio as a whole, adjustments based on market signals, and firm risk controls, such as setting maximum loss thresholds and reducing leverage during periods of heightened volatility. Above all, these principles must be documented, quantified, and consistently applied.

VIR