Experts optimistic about long-term stock outlook

Experts optimistic about long-term stock outlook

Vietnam’s stock market has experienced short-term volatility, yet analysts remain optimistic about its long-term outlook.

Trinh Ha, a financial market analyst from Exness Investment Bank, emphasised that public investment will be a central growth driver in the coming months.

Ha underscored that the government’s determination to accelerate capital disbursement is the backbone of this momentum. Landmark ventures such as the North-South expressway, major ring roads in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, Long Thanh International Airport, metro lines, and plans for a high-speed railway are either underway or moving closer to implementation.

“Suppliers of construction materials including steel, cement, and stone, along with contractors, are positioned to benefit directly. As these projects reach later phases, demand for steel, asphalt, and aggregates will only intensify,” he said.

Vietnam’s relatively low public debt-to-GDP ratio provides ample fiscal room to sustain high levels of investment spending in the coming years. This fiscal discipline is seen as a distinct advantage compared with other regional economies.

“This resilience will not only support GDP expansion but also inject confidence into the equity market, ensuring that public investment remains a consistent anchor of growth through multiple business cycles,” Ha added.

In parallel, the financial sector stands out as another pillar of opportunity. Truong Hien Phuong, senior director at KIS Vietnam Securities, noted that both securities firms and banks are positioned to gain.

“For securities companies, the expected upgrade in market classification could be transformative,” Phuong said. “Funds operating in frontier markets currently manage portfolios worth tens to hundreds of millions of US dollars, whereas those dedicated to emerging markets often deploy capital in the hundreds of millions to billions. This structural shift could channel a new wave of foreign capital into Vietnam’s equity market.”

Liquidity trends already illustrate the market’s changing dynamics. Historically, daily trading value on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange hovered around $800 million, but sessions now routinely exceed $1.6-$2 billion, with some peaking at $2.8 billion. Securities firms are the most immediate beneficiaries, enjoying stronger revenues from brokerage, margin lending, proprietary trading, and advisory services.

Banking stocks, too, continue to offer appeal. Phuong pointed out that supportive monetary policy including recent moves to ease reserve requirements is enabling banks to expand lending capacity and strengthen interest income.

Despite solid rallies in recent months, bank shares are still backed by forecasts of credit growth in the 16–18 per cent range for 2025. In a global context where many central banks remain cautious, Vietnam’s proactive stance on monetary easing adds to the sector’s attractiveness.

Real estate is another sector regaining momentum. Recent policy adjustments have removed legal hurdles, allowing developers to resume previously stalled projects. Residential sales are gradually recovering, with certain projects recording rapid absorption rates. Many property developers continue to trade at steep discounts from their 2021 peaks, which creates opportunities for long-term investors seeking value plays in a recovering cycle.

Industrial real estate has an even stronger structural foundation. As multinational manufacturers shift operations away from China, Vietnam is consistently chosen as a key alternative destination. Demand for industrial parks, factory land, and warehousing facilities remains high, supporting sustainable earnings growth for companies in this segment and reinforcing Vietnam’s role as a central node in global supply chains.

Beyond finance and real estate, retail and logistics are attracting growing investor attention. With the economy steadily recovering and household incomes on the rise, consumer spending is expected to rebound strongly, particularly in the fourth quarter, traditionally the busiest shopping season of the year.

Market leaders such as Vinamilk, Masan, and FPT Retail are likely to attract renewed interest from both domestic and foreign investors. The retail sector’s expansion also reflects Vietnam’s rising middle class and its growing appetite for modern consumer goods and services.

Meanwhile, robust export growth continues to provide a powerful tailwind for logistics operators. Shipments have maintained double-digit momentum despite global uncertainties, ensuring seaports and transportation companies remain in high demand. The expected continuation of this trend not only strengthens Vietnam’s external balance but also underpins the earnings of listed logistics firms.

Ha of Exness stressed that if the upgrade to emerging market status is achieved, Vietnam could attract more than $1 billion in fresh inflows from global index funds alone. Large-cap financials, real estate leaders, and consumer stocks with strong liquidity and sufficient foreign ownership room are the most likely beneficiaries. However, he cautioned that greater differentiation will characterise the market ahead.

“Some stocks have already surged and may face short-term corrections, while others still hold considerable upside. Investors should focus on companies with solid financial structures, resilient profit margins, and clear long-term growth strategies,” Ha said.

VIR