Credit growth forecast to sprint past Government target

Credit growth forecast to sprint past Government target

Some large joint stock commercial banks, such as MB, VPBank and HDBank, are even likely to have outstanding growth rates of 25-30 per cent in 2025.

By the end of August 2025, outstanding loans of the entire banking system increased by 11.8 per cent compared to the end of 2024. Photo vietnambiz.vn

The Government’s credit growth target of 16 per cent for 2025 looks well within reach as analysts predict the economy’s steady recovery will keep capital demand strong.

In a recent banking industry report, S&I Ratings Joint Stock Company analysts said credit growth could even accelerate to 17-18 per cent this year if positive momentum continues.

Large joint stock commercial banks such as MB, VPBank and HDBank, which absorbed three weaker banks and received incentives including reduced reserve requirements and credit expansion support, are expected to see outstanding growth rates of 25-30 per cent in 2025, according to analysts.

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) boosted lending capacity on July 31 by extending credit limits for banks that had already used more than 80 per cent of their initial quotas, opening the door for further credit growth in the final months of the year. By the end of August 2025, outstanding loans across the banking system had risen by 11.8 per cent since the end of 2024 and were 20.6 per cent higher than the same period last year.

MB Securities Joint Stock Company (MBS) analysts echoed this positive outlook in their year-end credit growth report, noting most banks are on track to meet their targets despite challenges posed by declining net interest margins.

“In particular, banks, which focus on lending to public investment and small- and medium-sized enterprises, maintain stable NIM and asset quality, and have strong capital raising rates, will likely continue to make a breakthrough in credit growth in the rest of the year,” the MBS analysts predict.

For example, MBS believes HDBank can achieve its ambitious credit growth target of 32 per cent in 2025, while Vietcombank can reach 15 per cent credit growth thanks to accelerated public investment disbursement, low lending interest rates, ambitious GDP growth targets and continued recovery of the real estate market.

Statistics from S&I Ratings show that credit growth in the banking system increased by 9.9 per cent in the first half of the year compared to the start of the year — the highest level since 2012, reflecting strong expansion in lending activity.

The main driver of this high credit growth came from joint stock commercial banks, especially those with strengths in business lending such as VPBank (up 18.7 per cent), HDBank (up 15.3 per cent), NamABank (up 14.7 per cent), MSB (up 13.5 per cent), SHB (up 12.9 per cent) and MB (up 12.3 per cent).

Notably, banks promoting real estate and securities lending also recorded impressive credit growth in the first half of 2025.

According to S&I Ratings, credit to real estate and financial services surged strongly. Outstanding loans to real estate investors increased by VNĐ41 trillion at SHB, VNĐ40 trillion at Techcombank and VNĐ21 trillion at MB, while lending to securities companies rose sharply at Nam A Bank (up VNĐ15 trillion), VPBank (up VNĐ13 trillion), VietBank (up VNĐ12 trillion) and VIB (up VNĐ11 trillion). 

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