Aggregate paddy production forecasted at 13.9 MT, 10% above five-year average

Aggregate paddy production forecasted at 13.9 MT, 10% above five-year average

However localised moisture deficits in Battambang province, which accounts for almost 65 percent of the main season maize output, will likely have a negative effect on yields, particularly of early planted crops, warns the FAO.

The aggregate paddy production in 2025/26 will reach 13.9 million tonnes (MT), which is about 10 percent above the five-year average, according to preliminary forecast released by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) on Monday.

In 2024/25, the aggregate paddy production in the country stood at 14.2 MT. Aggregate paddy production refers to the total volume or weight of paddy rice harvested across the country within a given period. It’s a measure of the overall output of the rice crop, accounting for all the different rice varieties and crops harvested in that region.

The FAO said planting of the 2025/26 main wet season paddy crop, accounting for about 70 percent of annual output, is expected to finalise by the end of August.

According to official estimates, as of early August 2025, about 2.7 million hectares were planted with paddy, close to the record level reached in the same period in 2024.

“The May to October monsoon season began on time in early May and precipitation amounts were average to above average until early August across the main rice producing southern and central provinces, supporting crop establishment and early development.

“In contrast, in some northern areas, precipitation amounts in July and August were well below average, constraining planting activities and affecting early crop development. In parts of Battambang, Oddar Meanchey and Siem Reap provinces, which together account for about 15 to 20 percent of the main season’s paddy output, satellite imagery indicated poor crop conditions as of early August (ASI map).

“The 2025/26 mostly irrigated secondary dry season paddy crop, accounting for about 30 percent of the annual output, will be planted from November onwards.”

The FAO pointed out that, in calendar year 2025, rice exports are forecast at 3.1 million tonnes, down from the record level of 3.4 million tonnes shipped in 2024, owing to increased competition for markets.

“Wholesale prices of rice generally declined between October 2024 and July 2025, reflecting abundant market availability from the 2024 record harvest and low exports in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. As of July 2025, domestic prices of rice were between 12 and 19 percent lower year-on-year.”

Meanwhile, the aggregate maize production in 2025/26 is preliminarily forecast at an above average level of 1.4 million tonnes. “Planting of the 2025/26 main wet season maize crop, accounting for about 80 percent of the annual output, is expected to finalise by the end of August.”

According to official estimates, as of early August, the area planted with maize surpassed the above-average level of 2024, supported by strong demand by the domestic feed industry.

“Localised moisture deficits in Battambang province, which accounts for almost 65 percent of the main season maize output, will likely have a negative effect on yields, particularly of early planted crops. The 2025/26 secondary dry season maize crop, accounting for about 20 percent of the annual output, will be planted in February 2026,” the FAO added.

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