VN-Index may test 1,300-point support before rebounding

VN-Index may test 1,300-point support before rebounding

According to market analysts, the medium-term uptrend remains intact, but the current correction is seen as a healthy phase for the VN-Index to consolidate momentum before potentially targeting the 1,398–1,418-point resistance zone in the weeks ahead.

Customers conduct stock transactions at MB Securities Company. — Photo Mbs.com.vn

After a slight correction last week, Việt Nam’s stock market is expected to face continued volatility and may test the 1,300-point support level in this week, as investors await key developments including Việt Nam–US tariff talks and the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting.

According to market analysts, the medium-term uptrend remains intact, but the current correction is seen as a healthy phase for the VN-Index to consolidate momentum before potentially targeting the 1,398–1,418-point resistance zone in the weeks ahead.

However, if the index fails to hold above 1,320 points early next week, a retreat toward the 1,285–1,300 range remains a possibility.

Đinh Quang Hinh, Head of Macroeconomics and Market Strategy at VNDirect Securities, said: “The VN-Index’s movement around 1,320 points will determine whether the short-term uptrend is sustained. A break below this level could trigger a further decline to deeper support near 1,300.”

He advised investors to prioritise portfolio risk management during what he described as a "crucial 30-day period" marked by sensitive macro events such as bilateral trade negotiations, the 90-day extension of countervailing tariff discussions, and the Fed’s June policy meeting.

“Investors should reduce leverage and restructure their portfolios toward safer allocations,” Hinh added.

From a technical standpoint, Phan Tấn Nhật, Head of Research at Saigon – Hanoi Securities (SHS), warned that downward pressure remains, especially as the market is retesting the previous peak around 1,350 points.

He observed weakening liquidity and increasing sectoral divergence, particularly among stocks that had previously surged, such as those in ports, textiles and industrial zones.

SHS noted that the lack of a significant increase in liquidity during the recent pullback suggests this may be merely a technical correction, not a reversal of the primary trend.

“Still, the market needs more time to consolidate and establish a new equilibrium, particularly amid a renewed wave of foreign net selling,” Nhật added.

During the trading week from June 3 to 6, the VN-Index logged two gaining sessions and three consecutive declines, erasing its early-week gains.

The benchmark closed at 1,329.89 points, down 2.71 points or 0.2 per cent from the previous week. This marked the first weekly decline after four weeks of gains and came amid a lack of supportive news and stalled progress in Việt Nam–US trade discussions.

A standout trend last week was widespread profit-taking as the index approached the 1,350-point resistance, the highest level in three years. The absence of strong leadership from blue chips led to capital shifting toward mid- and small-cap stocks, while VN30 stocks underperformed.

Average weekly trading value on HoSE reached VNĐ22.6 trillion (US$867.5 million) per session, down slightly by nearly one per cent from the previous week.

Foreign investors returned to net selling, offloading over VNĐ2.1 trillion in the first week of June, primarily targeting VHM, SHP, VCI, and HAH. Notably, VHM alone saw a net outflow of VNĐ1.55 trillion on Friday, the largest daily net sale since mid-April. 

Bizhub