Domestic sea freight rates expected to remain high this year

Domestic sea freight rates expected to remain high this year

Domestic sea freight rates are expected to remain stable or even see a slight increase in 2025, according to Guotai Junan Việt Nam Securities.

Containers are loaded on a vessel in Tân Cảng - Cái Mép Thị Vải port in Bà Rịa - Vũng Tàu Province. — VNA/VNS Photo

Guotai Junan Securities (Việt Nam) Corp. forecasts that although cargo throughput is expected to rise this year, the carrying capacity of the domestic shipping fleet is unlikely to grow at the same pace. 

As a result, domestic shipping rates are expected to remain stable or even see a slight increase in 2025.

Việt Nam’s import-export cargo volume is set to increase significantly as foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into Việt Nam continue to grow positively, according to Guotai Junan Việt Nam Securities. Key export markets, including the US, the EU, Japan and South Korea, are also showing positive economic signals.

In 2024, the container throughput via Vietnamese seaports was estimated to reach 29.9 million TEUs, marking a 21 per cent increase compared to the previous year.

As of January, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) had risen to about US$2,505 per TEU, representing an over 32 per cent increase compared to the same period in 2024.

Guotai Junan Việt Nam Securities noted that the high US tariffs on Chinese goods would accelerate the global supply chain shift, leading to increased movement of goods across different regions and longer shipping distances. 

Consequently, ocean freight rates were expected to remain high, establishing a new pricing benchmark.

In 2024, the Middle East situation impacted maritime security in the Red Sea region, forcing most global shipping companies to reroute their voyages, leading to longer transit times. 

Singapore Port, the world’s second-largest container port, became a major transhipment hub for these new routes. The massive influx of cargo into Singapore Port caused severe congestion, prolonged loading and unloading times, and a 7 per cent global decline in the availability of empty containers.

Additionally, Chinese enterprises, anticipating high tariffs under US President Donald Trump’s policies, hoarded empty containers and rushed to export goods to the US in the second half of 2024, further driving up demand for empty containers.

As a result, major global shipping companies simultaneously raised freight rates. 

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