No strong volatility forecast for Vietnam’s stock market after Trump assumes office: expert
No strong volatility forecast for Vietnam’s stock market after Trump assumes office: expert
There will not be major disruptions in the Vietnamese stock market in the coming week after Donald Trump assumes the U.S. presidency on Monday unless there is a major shock or change in his proposed policies, a Vietnamese expert said.
U.S. President Donald Trump. Photo: AFP |
Dinh Quang Hinh, head of macro and market strategy at Hanoi-based securities firm VNDirect, claimed that the global financial market is paying attention to the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and the implementation of his policies on tariffs, immigration, and corporate income taxes.
Concerns about the risks surrounding Trump’s policies have partly affected the stock market’s performance over the past two months.
Hinh expected the recovery trend to continue in the final trading week of the Year of the Snake, driven by the announcement of business performance in the last quarter of 2024.
Listed companies on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange were forecast to maintain a net profit growth rate of over 20 percent in the last quarter of last year, which will help improve stock valuations and boost investment flows back into the market.
Exchange rate pressure was expected to continue to ease, relieving market sentiment. However, margin trading should be limited.
Doan Minh Tuan, Head of Research & Investment at FIDT, a Vietnamese investment consulting and asset management service provider, said the global financial market continues to face pressure from the strengthening U.S. dollar and expectations that U.S. interest rates will remain high as the Federal Reserve shows no signs of reducing rates in the first half of 2025.
According to Tuan, Donald Trump's inauguration could increase policy risks, affecting global market sentiment and capital flows.
In Vietnam, exchange rate pressure has eased, helping the benchmark VN-Index react positively at the support level of 1,220 points.
However, the current recovery trend is mainly technical, with low liquidity, and carries a cautious market sentiment.
Truong Thai Dat, head of research at DSC Securities Corporation, said the impact of Trump’s policies will be noticeable from the end of 2025, as the time to implement new policies in the U.S. is quite long.
The process usually takes at least six to twelve months.
Even if the Trump administration applies a tariff rate of 60 percent on goods imported from China and 10-20 percent on goods from countries that do not have free trade agreements with the U.S., Vietnam will not face additional tariffs.
However, as one of the five countries with a significant trade surplus with the U.S., it could be required to increase technology and energy imports.
With this scenario, Vietnam would still benefit from stable trade relations, the shift of production to the country, and opportunities to access more technology and energy products from the U.S..
However, the downside is that Vietnam may have to reduce benefits from some key export sectors, and the pressure to balance trade could cause difficulties for local small and medium enterprises.
