Green momentum likely to persist on Việt Nam's stock market
Green momentum likely to persist on Việt Nam's stock market
Việt Nam’s stock market staged a strong rebound last week, recovering after two weeks of consecutive declines that had wiped more than 40 points from the VN-Index.
An investor monitors the stock market. — Photo laodong.vn |
After dipping to the 1,220-point level, bottom-fishing demand re-emerged, particularly in large-cap stocks, driving the VN-Index higher in four out of five trading sessions and closing the week near the 1,250-point mark.
By the end of the week, the VN-Index increased by 18.63 points, equivalent to 1.51 per cent, to close at 1,249.11 points. Similarly, the HNX-Index rose to 222.48 points, marking a 1.36 per cent gain from the previous week.
Despite this recovery, market liquidity remained subdued, reflecting cautious sentiment among investors. On the Hồ Chí Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE), the average daily trading volume reached nearly 459 million shares, a decline of 5 per cent from the prior week.
A key drag on market sentiment was the aggressive net selling by foreign investors. Over the past week, foreign investors accelerated their net sales, offloading nearly VNĐ5 trillion worth of shares.
On the HoSE, they net sold shares across all five trading sessions, amounting to a total volume of 117.05 million shares, with a corresponding net selling value of VNĐ4.69 trillion. This marked a significant increase of 2.5 times in volume and nearly 3.5 times in value compared to the previous week.
Phan Tấn Nhật, Head of Analysis at Saigon-Hanoi Securities (SHS), highlighted that the VN-Index displayed a strong recovery after a sharp decline. The index tested the significant resistance zone of 1,250–1,260 points, a level corresponding to the highest prices of 2023 and the 200-day moving average.
According to Nhật, the short-term trend of the VN-Index could improve if it manages to surpass this resistance. However, he remained cautious about the medium-term outlook, suggesting the market is still in a prolonged consolidation phase within the 1,200–1,300-point range, which has persisted since early 2024.
Regarding foreign investors’ persistent net selling, Nguyễn Duy Phương, Investment Director at DG Capital, noted that theoretically, foreign investors are unlikely to sustain heavy selling in 2025, having already net sold significantly over the past two years, peaking in 2024.
Phương emphasised the need to monitor policies under Donald Trump’s administration in 2025. “If Trump adopts a ‘soft touch’ approach with trade tariffs, foreign selling could slow or even reverse into net buying. However, if he pursues aggressive taxation policies, foreign investors may continue to sell, albeit at a lower intensity than in 2024,” he said.
He also pointed out that Việt Nam’s potential market upgrade could significantly attract foreign capital. “Funds focused on frontier markets are relatively small. However, if Việt Nam is upgraded to secondary emerging market status, the scale of funds, typically in the billions of US dollars, would be much larger, amplifying inflows,” Phương added.
