New interest rate level forecast in Q2 2021
New interest rate level forecast in Q2 2021
After staying at a low level last year, deposit and lending interest rates will probably increase in the second quarter of this year as credit demand is high again when the COVID-19 pandemic is controlled and the economy rebounds further, according to experts.
According to the State Bank of Viet Nam, interest rates on the interbank market and individual deposits are rising again. The average interbank interest rate inched slightly from 0.02-0.03 per cent last month to 0.26 per cent per year for overnight loans and 0.44 per cent for one-week loans. The average rate for nine-month loans in the interbank market reached 3.64 per cent per year.
Since the beginning of March, deposit interest rates have also been adjusted upwards by many banks, with some even raising the 12-month deposits to more than 6 per cent per year.
Specifically, at Techcombank, the one-month savings interest rate for regular customers has increased from 2.75 per cent per year to 3.1 per cent per year and the rate applied to priority customers has also risen from 2.9-3.1 per cent per year to 3.2-3.4 per cent per year. For six-month deposits, the rates for regular and priority customers have also been adjusted up to 4.4-4.7 per cent per year and 4.5-4.8 per cent per year, respectively.
Similarly, BIDV has also applied new deposit rates for individual customers. For the 3-month term, the interest rate has increased slightly to 3.4 per cent per year and 4.0 per cent per year for six-month deposits.
For three-month deposits, Viet Capital Bank's deposit interest rate is currently 3.8 per cent per year and 5.7 per cent per year for six-month deposits.
The online deposits for 12- and 24-month deposits at Sacombank and SCB are 5.9 per cent and 6.5 per cent, respectively. Banks such as ACB, VPBank, TPBank, and HDBank also apply a 12-month online deposit rate of more than 6 per cent per year.
Bao Viet Securities Company forecast deposit interest rates may increase in the context that the COVID-19 pandemic is controlled, the vaccination programme is about to be deployed and inflation is likely to increase again.
SSI Securities Company predicted after remaining stable in the first quarter and early in the second quarter this year, deposit and loan interest rates would inch up from the end of Q2 2021 when economic activities increase, pushing credit demand up.
According to banking expert Nguyen Tri Hieu, though data on credit growth in the first quarter of this year has not been released, some bank leaders revealed bank profits have grown positively since the first months of the year when production and business activities have been gradually recovering.
Despite the large demand for loans, banks are still very cautious about the impact of the pandemic on the economy in general. However, if the pandemic is controlled and the demand for loans increases rapidly, it is likely that interest rates will be adjusted up, Hieu.
