Việt Nam updates two inflation scenarios, tightens price management for year-end

Việt Nam updates two inflation scenarios, tightens price management for year-end

Close coordination between fiscal, monetary and other macroeconomic policies is needed to maintain price stability, safeguard major economic balances and preserve room to support growth and strengthen resilience to external shocks.

A consumer shops at a supermarket in HCM City. — VNA/VNS Photo Hương Giang

The Ministry of Finance has updated its inflation forecasts for 2026, projecting annual inflation of either 4.5 or 4.8 per cent based on two different scenarios, and called for tighter price management and coordinated macroeconomic policies to curb inflationary pressures in the final months of the year.

Deputy Minister of Finance Trần Quốc Phương said domestic prices were expected to remain under pressure in the fourth quarter from fluctuations in global energy and raw material prices, exchange rate risks and potential supply chain disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions and changes in trade and tariff policies.

Accelerated public investment and rising demand for construction materials, machinery, equipment and other production inputs could also push up aggregate demand while supply adjusts more slowly, the ministry said.

Seasonally higher production and consumption towards year-end could add pressure on the prices of some goods and services.

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) forecasts average inflation of up to 5 per cent in 2026, while international organisations project a range of 4.2-5.5 per cent.

To contain inflation in the final months of the year, the ministry said that close coordination between fiscal, monetary and other macroeconomic policies is needed to maintain price stability, safeguard major economic balances and preserve room to support growth and strengthen resilience to external shocks.

The SBV should pursue flexible monetary policy in coordination with fiscal measures, while closely monitoring exchange rates, interest rates, credit growth, money supply and international capital flows to limit imported inflation, the ministry said.

Credit should be prioritised for production, business activities and priority sectors.

The Ministry of Finance will also continue implementing tax, fee and charge exemptions, reductions and deferrals to lower business input costs and ease pressure on households.

For essential goods, the Ministry of Industry and Trade is urged to closely monitor prices and supplies of petrol, liquefied petroleum gas, coal and other key energy products to prevent supply disruption.

Production, supply and demand and prices for essential food products and construction materials will also be watched closely.

Authorities were also urged to strengthen inspections of transport fares and listed prices, requiring transport operators to reduce fares when fuel costs fall and taking strict action against delayed adjustments or unreasonable fare increases that exploit market fluctuations.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.62 per cent in September from August, mainly reflecting higher domestic fuel prices in line with global energy markets.

September CPI increased 4.2 per cent from December 2025 and 5.08 per cent from a year earlier. Average CPI in the third quarter rose 4.8 per cent year on year.

For the first nine months of 2026, CPI increased 4.52 per cent from the same period last year, while core inflation rose 4.26 per cent.

The Government has set a target for inflation at around 4.5 per cent for the full year. 

Bizhub