VN-Index may reach 1,850 points after long holidays

VN-Index may reach 1,850 points after long holidays

The 1,830–1,850-point area is expected to bring greater selling pressure, potentially resulting in more volatile sessions as the market absorbs supply.

A trader talks to a customer. — Photo vfs.com.vn

The domestic stock market closed last week above the key 1,800-point threshold after seven consecutive gaining sessions, although analysts expect stronger profit-taking pressure as the benchmark approaches the 1,850-point area.

Ahead of the National Day holiday, the benchmark VN-Index maintained its recovery momentum after a strong opening session brought it close to 1,800 points.

The index subsequently broke above the threshold and ended the week at 1,832.12 points, gaining 3.62 per cent.

The seven-session winning streak lifted the index by more than 105 points, supported by expectations surrounding State capital divestments and a potential market upgrade, alongside a return to net buying by foreign investors.

Banking, securities and real estate stocks remained among the main drivers, while capital also flowed into selected large-cap stocks in the technology, public investment, oil and gas and retail sectors.

In August, the VN-Index gained more than 96 points, or 5.55 per cent.

Liquidity, however, has yet to accelerate to the same extent as the index. Average matched turnover remained at around VNĐ16 trillion (US$613.7 million), indicating continued caution among investors ahead of the long holiday and amid relatively high interest rates and tight capital conditions.

Foreign trading also showed a marked change, with overseas investors recording net selling of nearly VNĐ1.37 trillion during the month, down almost 90 per cent from nearly VNĐ11.64 trillion in July and the lowest monthly net-selling value this year.

Attention is now turning to whether the benchmark can maintain its position above 1,800 points when trading resumes.

The 1,830–1,850-point area is expected to bring greater selling pressure, potentially resulting in more volatile sessions as the market absorbs increased supply. The 1,800–1,820-point zone, meanwhile, is viewed as an important short-term support area.

Saigon-Hanoi Securities (SHS) said the short-term trend of the VN-Index remained positive after the benchmark broke above strong resistance around 1,800 points, as well as the downward trendline associated with the correction and accumulation phase that has persisted since May.

SHS expects the index to target the next range of around 1,850–1,900 points.

However, the firm expects selling pressure at higher price levels to increase, meaning the VN-Index could face repeated corrections to retest the 1,800–1,820-point area.

Valuations are another factor for investors to consider after the recent rally.

Total market capitalisation currently stands at around $425 billion, equivalent to 83 per cent of Việt Nam's 2025 GDP. SHS said this did not represent a particularly attractive valuation level for the market.

The firm said investors should therefore be more cautious about increasing their exposure, focusing on fundamentally strong, industry-leading companies in strategic sectors with growth prospects exceeding those of the broader economy.

Investor sentiment after the holiday is also expected to influence near-term trading. Following the strong recovery, investors may become more selective, focusing on whether capital continues to flow into leading sectors and whether recently established price levels can be sustained.

If the VN-Index remains above the 1,800–1,820-point support zone, the short-term recovery trend is expected to remain intact. A break below 1,800 points, however, could see the benchmark retest the 1,780–1,800-point range before finding a new equilibrium.

Yuanta Securities Vietnam said investors with a short-term horizon of less than one month could consider new purchases during intraday corrections when trading resumes on Thursday.

The brokerage highlighted banking, securities, technology, retail and logistics stocks, as well as leading Vietnamese stocks selected for inclusion in the FTSE Global Equity Index Series, among the groups investors could watch. 

Bizhub