VN-Index likely to consolidate within the 1,745-1,800-point range

VN-Index likely to consolidate within the 1,745-1,800-point range

The Q2 earnings season has passed and there have been no major new domestic policy developments, leaving the market without a sufficiently strong story to attract broad-based buying, said experts.

Traders work in a trading room of a securities firm. — Photo bnews.vn

The stock market is approaching a key resistance zone of around 1,800 points after two consecutive weeks of recovery, but subdued liquidity and lingering global uncertainties are keeping investors cautious.

The VN-Index, representing the Hochiminh Stock Exchange (HoSE), closed last week at 1,768.06 points, gaining 1.86 per cent from the previous week.

Capital rotated among sectors, with large-cap stocks featuring high State ownership performing strongly in the final session. However, buying remained insufficiently broad to trigger a decisive market breakout.

Nguyễn Tấn Phong, an analyst at Pinetree Securities, said upward momentum slowed noticeably as the VN-Index approached the 1,775-1,810-point resistance zone, which was previously a support area before being breached during the June correction.

Liquidity also remained relatively weak. Trading volume last week was about 9 per cent below the 20-week average, reflecting investor caution following the rapid rebound. 

Foreign investors provided a brighter signal, returning to net buying of more than VNĐ2.1 trillion (US$80 million) across the market after an extended period of capital withdrawals.

However, the return to net buying has yet to signal a sustained reversal in foreign capital flows, while domestic investors remain hesitant to increase exposure.

Attention this week will turn to July US inflation data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), which could shape expectations for the US Federal Reserve's September policy meeting.

Negotiations involving Iran, the US and Gulf countries over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will also remain in focus.

Renewed increases in oil prices could affect inflation and interest-rate expectations, potentially influencing the US dollar and capital flows into emerging markets.

Meanwhile, domestic fundamentals are expected to provide greater support during the second half of the year.

According to SSI Research, profit after tax attributable to parent-company shareholders among HoSE-listed companies increased 45.8 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter and 29.2 per cent in the first half, with banks and property companies accounting for around 70 per cent of overall earnings growth.

Valuations have also become more attractive following the recent correction. SSI estimated the market's 2026 forward price-to-earnings ratio at around 12.2 times. Excluding Vingroup-related stocks, the valuation falls to approximately 9.5 times.

Việt Nam's market upgrade remains another medium-term catalyst, with investors anticipating the first allocation of passive capital associated with FTSE's upgrade in September 2026.

In the near term, however, securities companies remain cautious.

Pinetree expects the VN-Index to consolidate within the 1,745-1,800-point range, particularly as the market enters a relatively quiet information period following the second-quarter earnings season.

"The second-quarter earnings season has passed and there have been no major new domestic policy developments, leaving the market without a sufficiently strong story to attract broad-based buying," Phong said.

"Net foreign buying can help support prices, but it is not yet enough to push the index through resistance."

He also warned that persistently high oil prices could pose risks. Stronger-than-expected US inflation could delay expectations for Fed rate cuts, strengthen the dollar and potentially prompt foreign investors to return to net selling.

Kirin Securities (CSI) similarly noted that although the VN-Index has risen for two consecutive weeks, the magnitude of the gains is diminishing and the resistance around 1,790 points has yet to be broken.

CSI therefore advised investors against rushing to establish new positions, suggesting they wait for the market's reaction around the 1,720-point support area before increasing exposure. 

Bizhub