Rail steel demand seen at 4 million tonnes, driven by major railway projects

Rail steel demand seen at 4 million tonnes, driven by major railway projects

Demand will mainly come from the North-South high-speed railway, the Hà Nội – Hải Phòng - Lào Cai railway and metro projects in HCM City.

Bến Thành - Suối Tiên metro line No. 1 in HCM City. Việt Nam is forecast to need about 28.7 million meters or 4 million tonnes of rail steel for high-speed rail and urban railway projects in the 2026-30 period. — VNA/VNS Photo Hồng Đạt

Around 28.7 million metres or 4 million tonnes of rail steel is needed for high-speed rail and urban railway projects in the 2026-30 period, which is creating significant opportunities for domestic producers such as Hoà Phát Group and Vingroup's VinMetal, MB Securities (MBS) said in a recent report.

Demand will mainly come from the North-South high-speed railway, the Hà Nội – Hải Phòng - Lào Cai railway and metro projects in HCM City, the report says.

MBS report notes that the estimate may not include demand from projects such as the Hà Nội – Quảng Ninh railway and the Bến Thành - Cần Giờ line, which is being developed by Vingroup, suggesting actual demand could be higher.

MBS identifies Hoà Phát and VinMetal, a unit of Vingroup, as potential major beneficiaries due to their ability to produce rail steel.

Hòa Phát is investing about VNĐ14 trillion (US$535 million) to build a rail steel plant at its Dung Quất complex, with designed capacity of 700,000 tonnes per year.

VinMetal, meanwhile, partnered with Pomina on a project with designed capacity of 5 million tonnes. The company could import hot-rolled coil (HRC) and carry out rolling operations rather than producing steel through a full process like Hòa Phát.

MBS expects VinMetal to bring its first rail steel products to the market by late 2026.

However, domestic rail steel supply is forecast to slow in 2027-28 and gradually pick up momentum from 2029.

Hòa Phát is expected to supply around 400,000 tonnes in 2027 before increasing output to about 700,000 tonnes annually in the following year while VinMetal's output is forecast to rise from around 600,000 tonnes in 2027 to 3.5 million tonnes by 2030.

MBS analysts said 2026-27 could mark a new growth cycle for Việt Nam's domestic steel industry, supported by favourable demand and a potential recovery in steel prices from 2026.

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