Market likely to continue facing pressure in April

Market likely to continue facing pressure in April

April's market will continue to face geopolitical risks, rising interest rates and elevated margin financing, while the economy still has room for support.

Traders work on a floor of a securities firm in HCM City. — VNA/VNS Photo

Việt Nam's stock market closed last week with a cautious recovery similar to the previous week. The benchmark index ended higher than at the start of the week, but gains were modest as liquidity remained hesitant.

On the Hochiminh Stock Exchange (HoSE), the VN-Index finished the week at 1,684.04 points, up 41.52 points from the week's opening level but only 11.24 points, or 0.67 per cent, above the previous week's close.

However, the HNX-Index on the Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX) last traded at 248.68 points, down 1.46 per cent for the week.

Liquidity on the HoSE weakened markedly last week, with total trading value of more than VNĐ123.6 trillion (US$4.7 billion), up 5.25 per cent from the prior week.

Activity on the HNX remained muted, with weekly turnover of nearly VNĐ8 trillion, a marginal increase compared with the previous week.

Pressure in the final session came from several large-cap stocks, notably Hoa Phat Group (HPG), Gelex Electricity (GEE), BIDV (BID) and Techcombank (TCB), each subtracting about one point from the VN-Index.

By contrast, Vingroup (VIC) and Vinhomes (VHM) provided support, together contributing more than three points to temper the decline. Over the full week, VHM and VIC emerged as the primary drivers of recovery, adding roughly 15 points and 14.5 points to the index, respectively.

Fourteen of 21 sector groups finished the week lower. Real estate, chemicals and insurance posted the strongest weekly gains, while fertilisers, power and port operators recorded the steepest falls.

Foreign flows remained a net negative for the market, with aggregate net selling exceeding VNĐ1 trillion. Foreign investors recorded net sales of VNĐ1.6 trillion on HoSE, while net buying was seen on HNX (VNĐ597 billion).

Major net purchases included Masan Group (MSN), Ho Chi Minh City Securities (HCM) and Duc Giang Chemicals Group (DGC), while selling pressure focused on large-cap stocks such as Vietcombank (VCB), FPT Corporation (FPT), MBBank (MBB), HDBank (HDB), BID and VPBank (VPB).

Market participants and brokerage houses offered measured views on near-term prospects.

Saigon - Hanoi Securities (SHS) observed that after a steep fall and subsequent recovery, the VN-Index is consolidating within a 1,650–1,750 range, with 1,750 representing significant resistance.

SHS said profit-taking could intensify near that resistance and push the index back towards support in the 1,650–1,680 band, adding that April’s market will continue to face geopolitical risks, rising interest rates and elevated margin financing, while the economy still has room for support.

The securities firm therefore maintained a neutral, cautious stance.

Vietnam Construction Securities (CSI) described two consecutive weeks of modest recovery, with the market’s 0.67 per cent weekly gain indicating that the uptrend remains in place but the pace of recovery is slowing amid concerns over rising global inflation driven by Middle East tensions.

CSI suggested the index may climb in a zigzag manner towards resistance in the 1,770–1,790 range before resuming corrections and recommended that investors hold portfolios and exercise greater caution in position sizing amid heightened volatility. 

Bizhub