Investors expect new trend after three-weekly gain streak

Investors expect new trend after three-weekly gain streak

Market posted its third consecutive week of increases last week, but it sparks concern whether the positive trend has really returned or is it just a technical recovery in the medium-term trend.

Traders work at a securities firm's office. — VNA/VNS Photo

The stock market surged last week, extending the recovery momentum and marking the strongest advance in the current rebound sequence as investor sentiment improved after a period of market swings.

On the Hochiminh Stock Exchange (HoSE), the VN‑Index closed the week at 1,750 points, while the HNX-Index on the Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX) last traded at 251.91 points.

For the week, the former gained 4.13 per cent and the latter increased 1.3 per cent.

Despite the sharp point gain, liquidity remained relatively steady rather than accelerating in a way that matched the index move. The average trading value on HoSE hovered above VNĐ24.3 trillion (US$923 million) per session, representing a slight increase versus the prior week.

Market commentators said the weekly advance reflected a broad alignment of supportive factors. 

Positive expectations tied to the upgrading roadmap for Việt Nam's market continued to strengthen longer-term sentiment, while cooling geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reduced risk pressure, helping ease concerns around oil prices and global risk appetite.

According to Vietcombank Securities (VCBS), capital flows showed waned volatility and broader spillover, yet leadership continued to come from large-cap groups, specifically banks, real estate, retail and Vin-family. 

The recovery in these pillar segments was described as the main factor helping the index sustain a steadier upward trajectory.

The session on April 8 stood out as the momentum driver, with the VN‑Index adding nearly 80 points alongside improving liquidity. 

Market coverage characterised this as an explosive follow-through session, supporting the view that a recovery trend could be gradually re-emerging after a corrective phase.

Foreign investors showed a more balanced pattern on the last session of the week when they returned to net buying, although the full-week totals still indicated net selling of over VNĐ3 trillion.

This week, sentiment diverged on whether the rebound would become a confirmed uptrend.

Vietnam Construction Securities (CSI) said the VN‑Index delivered its third consecutive weekly gain, the strongest in the current recovery chain, while liquidity held around levels comparable to the 20-week average. 

CSI linked that to a stabilising turn in the prior downtrend and argued that the recovery trend was beginning to take hold. CSI expected the index could aim for the 1,780–1,790 point resistance zone in the coming weeks.

From a technical standpoint, CSI also pointed to a narrow accumulation range, with support around 1,680 points - the 200-session moving average - and resistance around 1,750 - a level framed as a strong barrier that would require substantial underlying momentum to clear.

In contrast, Saigon–Hanoi Securities (SHS) described the market as returning to a re-accumulation phase after a decline. SHS expected the VN‑Index might continue testing the 1,700-1,720 support zone before a clearer trend develops.

SHS also cited valuation and macro sensitivity: the market's overall capitalisation was described as roughly $400 billion, equivalent to 78 per cent of 2025 GDP, which SHS said was not overly compelling amid ongoing inflation pressures and oil prices staying high. 

The firm added that investors may consider increasing exposure on pullbacks toward lower price bands, in line with expectations for market upgrading and clearer visibility into the first-quarter earnings.

On a more cautious note, Pinetree Securities argued that the strong April 8 jump appeared more like short-term exuberance and could reflect a technical rebound rather than the start of a durable uptrend. 

It attributed heightened near-term sensitivity to macroeconomic variables and geopolitics, which could still produce abrupt fluctuations.

In the near term, the market continues to be supported by expectations surrounding the upgrading narrative, the Q1 earnings season, and signs of steadier conditions in the global economy. 

However, the source material also stressed that pressure from FX rates, interest rates and oil prices remains a key variable to monitor closely.

At the international level, the narrative highlighted forthcoming global indicators, including US Producer Price Index (PPI) data, China's Q1 GDP, and other production-consumption statistics, saying these can influence global sentiment and capital flows to emerging markets such as Việt Nam. 

Domestically, expectations for more flexible policy execution, the upcoming annual general meeting season and Q1 results were framed as psychological supports for the latter half of April.

A major reference point comes from FTSE Russell, which issued on April 8, was reported to continue recognising progress in Việt Nam's market development and to keep the upgrade roadmap unchanged, targeting an entry to the secondary emerging market classification in September 2026. 

This was described as an important support for expectations of mid- and long-term capital inflows.

Đỗ Bảo Ngọc, deputy general director of CSI, said that while the market in the short run remains affected by interest rates, FX and geopolitics, international capital and valuation would be decisive drivers for the medium-to-long-term trend. 

Bizhub