GDP growth scenario of over 10 per cent maintained for 2026

GDP growth scenario of over 10 per cent maintained for 2026

Despite a lower-than-expected GDP growth in Q1 2026, authorities keep a double-digit growth scenario unchanged for the remaining quarters of this year.

A view of the event. — Photo thitruongtaichinhtiente.vn

Despite a lower-than-expected GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026, Vietnamese authorities are maintaining a double-digit growth scenario for the remainder of the year.

At a press conference on Thursday, Đỗ Thị Ngọc, deputy director of the Ministry of Finance’s National Statistics Office (NSO), said the GDP growth rate of 7.83 per cent in Q1 2026 fell short of expectations amid global uncertainties.

Relying on a strong recovery in exports and domestic consumption, along with hopes for an early resolution of the conflict in the Middle East, the NSO projected GDP growth of 10.5 per cent in Q2, 10.6 per cent in Q3 and 10.74 per cent in Q4.

Ngọc noted that these projections require very high growth rates in the industrial and service sectors and outlined key drivers for achieving this goal.

Firstly, public investment continues to act as seed capital, boosting long-term production capacity. Many projects, including mega-projects, need to be prioritised in 2026 to stimulate private investment and foreign direct investment (FDI). Notably, registered FDI capital reached a high level in Q1, creating optimism for subsequent quarters.

Secondly, domestic consumption is expected to rise due to wage reforms, consumer stimulus measures and a market of over 100 million people. E-commerce and supportive tax and fiscal policies are also contributing to this growth.

Thirdly, fiscal and monetary policies remain flexible and closely coordinated to support businesses, unlock capital for companies and individual business households, and promote production.

Fourth, emerging fields such as digital technology and artificial intelligence are enhancing the economy’s internal capacity, improving labour productivity, and increasing the contribution of science and technology to growth.

Finally, export industries are expected to leverage advantages from free trade agreements to boost performance.

“With these drivers, the growth outlook from the second quarter onwards is more positive, providing a foundation to achieve the full-year target for 2026,” Ngọc said. 

Bizhub